Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)</li><li>Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

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Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

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Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors introduces the Tata.ev app to help EV owners find and navigate to reliable charging stations.</li>
<li>Bharti Airtel postpones the call for INR15,000 crore of its rights issue.</li>
<li>SBI will deploy 2,000 executives to enhance its wealth management services, aiming to attract high-net-worth individuals.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors introduces the Tata.ev app to help EV owners find and navigate to reliable charging stations.
Bharti Airtel postpones the call for INR15,000 crore of its rights issue.
SBI will deploy 2,000 executives to enhance its wealth management services, aiming to attract high-net-worth individuals.


# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

<ul><li>State Bank of India: SBIN’s earnings were in line with estimates with healthy loan growth (~16% YoY) and stable NIMs, offset by soft deposit growth and elevated credit costs</li><li>Loan growth was strong across segments, offset by a slowdown in the Xpress credit portfolio</li><li>Deposit growth (+8% YoY, -0.3% QoQ) was muted with the CASA ratio dropping to 39% (-45 bps QoQ), in line with industry trends</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India: SBIN’s earnings were in line with estimates with healthy loan growth (~16% YoY) and stable NIMs, offset by soft deposit growth and elevated credit costsLoan growth was strong across segments, offset by a slowdown in the Xpress credit portfolioDeposit growth (+8% YoY, -0.3% QoQ) was muted with the CASA ratio dropping to 39% (-45 bps QoQ), in line with industry trendsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Thermax, Aptus Value Housing Finance India

India

State Bank of India (SBI) is a multinational public sector bank and financial services company that offers a wide array of banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, investment banking, insurance, and wealth management. Its key products and services include home loans, SME loans, corporate credit, and digital banking solutions. The bank is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and traces its roots to the Bank of Calcutta established in 1806, officially becoming State Bank of India in 1955.

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State Bank of India (SBIN IN)

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.

Sudarshan Bhandari

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Thermax, Aptus Value Housing Finance India

State Bank of India: SBIN’s earnings were in line with estimates with healthy loan growth (~16% YoY) and stable NIMs, offset by soft deposit growth...

HDFC Securities

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India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

​CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

# 42 India Insight: Tata Motors New EV, Airtel Postpones Right Issue, SBI Wealth Management

​Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.

Sudarshan Bhandari

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Thermax, Aptus Value Housing Finance India

State Bank of India: SBIN’s earnings were in line with estimates with healthy loan growth (~16% YoY) and stable NIMs, offset by soft deposit growth...

HDFC Securities

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Tata Motors launches Tata.ev app for EV charging, Bharti Airtel delays rights issue, SBI to boost wealth management services with 2,000 executives.