Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ</li>
<li>The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth</li>
<li>While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these


JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  </li>
<li>SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.</li>
<li>SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s Q4 2024 revenue is expected to increase by 2.6% YoY and EPS by 7.1%. For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to rise 9.3% YoY and EPS by 14.4%.  
SLB surpassed analyst EPS projections for the past four consecutive quarters, despite facing headwinds from lower drilling activity in North America and slowing international expenditures.
SLB completed the construction of the world's first industrial-scale carbon capture facility in Q4. It also enhanced its digital solutions portfolio and secured major contracts for deepwater operations.


[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

<ul>
<li>There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20</li>
<li>JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US</li>
<li>Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs</li>
</ul>


There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs


JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.</li>
<li>Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.</li>
<li>Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q3 revenue is expected to rise 6.3% YoY and 3.7% QoQ but its EPS is anticipated to fall 11% YoY and 5.6% QoQ.
Management expects upstream earnings to decline by USD 0.6-1 billion due to falling crude oil prices. Earnings from the energy products segment are also projected to drop significantly.
Exxon expects production in 2024 to be around 4.3 Moebd, with 1.2 Moebd coming from the Permian. The total capex for the year is estimated at USD 28 billion.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>BP’s revenue is expected to rise 7% QoQ but fall 5% YoY while EPS is anticipated to drop 7% QoQ and 19% YoY.</li>
<li>Management projected lower upstream production for Q3 compared to Q2, including in high-margin regions. However, retail fuel sales are expected to increase on stronger seasonal demand.</li>
<li>In 2023, BP allocated over 30% of its total expenditure to charging stations, biofuels, hydrogen fuels, and fuelling stations, a significant rise from just 3% in 2019.</li>
</ul>


BP’s revenue is expected to rise 7% QoQ but fall 5% YoY while EPS is anticipated to drop 7% QoQ and 19% YoY.
Management projected lower upstream production for Q3 compared to Q2, including in high-margin regions. However, retail fuel sales are expected to increase on stronger seasonal demand.
In 2023, BP allocated over 30% of its total expenditure to charging stations, biofuels, hydrogen fuels, and fuelling stations, a significant rise from just 3% in 2019.


[Earnings Preview] BP Faces Prolonged Margin Pressure in Q3 2024 Amid Lower Oil Prices

United States

State Street Corporation services institutional investors and manages financial assets worldwide.  The Company's products and services include custody, accounting, administration, daily pricing, international exchange services, cash management, financial asset management, securities lending, and investment advisory services.

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State Street (STT US)

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Falling crude prices and tightening refining margins are expected to hit Q3 profits. Analysts predict a dip in EPS but see revenue growth. Exxon’s...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP Faces Prolonged Margin Pressure in Q3 2024 Amid Lower Oil Prices

BP expects a slight QoQ decline in upstream production, including high-margin regions in Q3, but anticipates stronger retail sales from seasonal...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JPM - 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

The 4Q24 results from JPM are just out, with very strong growth in net profit, good cost controls and strong ALM still, with LDR expansion. Rising...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Can Schlumberger Defy a Sluggish Q4 to Keep Beating Expectations?

​SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...

Mint Finance

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] Exxon's Q3 Profit Faces Pressure from Weak Oil Prices and Tight Refining Margins

Falling crude prices and tightening refining margins are expected to hit Q3 profits. Analysts predict a dip in EPS but see revenue growth. Exxon’s...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] BP Faces Prolonged Margin Pressure in Q3 2024 Amid Lower Oil Prices

BP expects a slight QoQ decline in upstream production, including high-margin regions in Q3, but anticipates stronger retail sales from seasonal...

Mint Finance

SLB's Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to rise YoY. However, whether it will beat analyst projections remains to be seen. SLB made landmark...