IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to an AFR article, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB Group Limited (AUB AU)</a> confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eqt-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28922:1" rel="noopener">EQT (EQT SS)</a> at A$45.00.</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT's history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. </li>
<li>The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. </li>
</ul>


In response to an AFR article, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU) confirmed that on 26 September, it received a non-binding proposal from EQT (EQT SS) at A$45.00.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. EQT's history of unsuccessful ASX tilts warrants some caution. 
The Board has granted a six-week exclusive due diligence period, which ends on 20 November. The shareholder structure reduces the vote risk. 


AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 1st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD24.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles, National Australia Bank.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 25th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls</li></ul>

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

Australia

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

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Steadfast (SDF AU)

AUB Group (AUB AU): EQT’s NBIO at A$45.00

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is arguably light compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.

Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Ramelius Resources, Bluescope Steel, Boss Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 25th): Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Fortescue, BHP, Aristocrat Leisure, CSL, Bigtincan.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

FNArena

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