External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss on consensus) as total expenses jumped up by 29%/17%/7% YoY/QoQ/our estimate.</li><li>Revenue dropped 2% YoY and increased only by 9%/3% QoQ/Our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA miss against our and streets estimates is mainly due to a higher than expected rise in RM costs (coking coal imports) along with liquidation of high-cost inventory in the quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss on consensus) as total expenses jumped up by 29%/17%/7% YoY/QoQ/our estimate.Revenue dropped 2% YoY and increased only by 9%/3% QoQ/Our estimate.EBITDA miss against our and streets estimates is mainly due to a higher than expected rise in RM costs (coking coal imports) along with liquidation of high-cost inventory in the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sail -Weak Q2, Rising Leverage; Maintain HOLD

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.</li><li>Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.</li><li>We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22.</li><li>This has been on account of the weakness in the global, domestic demand and lower exports.</li><li>With the monsoon coming to an end, traders will focus on restocking which will gain momentum once the prices stabilize and bottom out.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22.This has been on account of the weakness in the global, domestic demand and lower exports.With the monsoon coming to an end, traders will focus on restocking which will gain momentum once the prices stabilize and bottom out.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steel Sector Outlook - Domestic Demand Revival A Key to Drive the Steel Sector

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-total-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1" rel="noopener">Adani Total Gas (ATGL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">IRCTC (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis (MPHL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/motherson-sumi-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10662:1" rel="noopener">Samvardhana Motherson (MSS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> are adds.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin (LPC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree (MTCL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> are deletes.</li>
<li>There is significant impact on a lot of the stocks in terms of days of delivery volume to trade. Given the index is overlooked, there could be significant price movements. </li>
</ul>



Adani Total Gas (ATGL IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN), IRCTC (IRCTC IN), Mphasis (MPHL IN), Samvardhana Motherson (MSS IN) and Shree Cement (SRCM IN) are adds.

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN), Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN), Lupin (LPC IN), Mindtree (MTCL IN), Punjab National Bank (PNB), Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN) are deletes.
There is significant impact on a lot of the stocks in terms of days of delivery volume to trade. Given the index is overlooked, there could be significant price movements. 


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Significant Impact for an Overlooked Index

<ul><li>SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q1FY23. This was largely anticipated due to lower sales volumes owing to traders de-stocking and higher coking coal costs in the quarter.</li><li>Saleable steel production (up 9% YoY/down 8% QoQ) stood firm, slightly above our estimate.</li><li>However, saleable steel sales (down 4%/32% YoY/QoQ) fell more than our expectation, a miss of 12% vs. our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q1FY23. This was largely anticipated due to lower sales volumes owing to traders de-stocking and higher coking coal costs in the quarter.Saleable steel production (up 9% YoY/down 8% QoQ) stood firm, slightly above our estimate.However, saleable steel sales (down 4%/32% YoY/QoQ) fell more than our expectation, a miss of 12% vs. our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sail - Outlook Challenging; Maintain HOLD

India

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Sail -Weak Q2, Rising Leverage; Maintain HOLD

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss...

Axis Direct

Metals & Mining Q2FY23 Results Preview

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.

Axis Direct

Steel Sector Outlook - Domestic Demand Revival A Key to Drive the Steel Sector

Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22. This has been on account of the weakness in the...

Axis Direct

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Significant Impact for an Overlooked Index

There are 7 adds/deletes for the NIFTY NEXT50 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes but there are significant days of delivery volume to...

Brian Freitas

Sail - Outlook Challenging; Maintain HOLD

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q1FY23. This was largely anticipated due to lower sales volumes owing to traders de-stocking and higher coking coal...

Axis Direct

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