Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.</li>
<li>Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.</li>
<li>Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.</li>
</ul>


Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.
Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.
Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.


Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Steel Dynamics provided a comprehensive update during their third quarter earnings call, outlining both growth trajectories and current challenges.</li><li>Delivering another solid financial performance, their commitment to safety and operational excellence remains a core focus, highlighted by the significant improvements in safety metrics.</li><li>The financial results for the third quarter were substantively stable, albeit influenced by secular trends in the steel market.</li></ul>

Steel Dynamics provided a comprehensive update during their third quarter earnings call, outlining both growth trajectories and current challenges.Delivering another solid financial performance, their commitment to safety and operational excellence remains a core focus, highlighted by the significant improvements in safety metrics.The financial results for the third quarter were substantively stable, albeit influenced by secular trends in the steel market.

Steel Dynamics Inc.: Can Their Attempts Towards The Diversification Of Product Portfolio Catalyze Growth? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Steel Dynamics achieved notable results in the second quarter of 2024, with some mixed performances across different operational aspects.</li><li>The company saw total revenues of $4.6 billion, a slight decline from the previous quarter, primarily attributed to a fall in steel prices which more than offset the stable shipment volumes.</li><li>Correspondingly, there was a contraction in the steel metal spread which resulted in a 26% reduction in operating income, totaling $559 million, compared to the previous quarter.</li></ul>

Steel Dynamics achieved notable results in the second quarter of 2024, with some mixed performances across different operational aspects.The company saw total revenues of $4.6 billion, a slight decline from the previous quarter, primarily attributed to a fall in steel prices which more than offset the stable shipment volumes.Correspondingly, there was a contraction in the steel metal spread which resulted in a 26% reduction in operating income, totaling $559 million, compared to the previous quarter.

Steel Dynamics Inc.: A Dive Into Market Dynamics and Policy Tailwinds & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>The first quarter 2024 results for Steel Dynamics Inc., display the strong performance of the company when considering their financial and operational undertakings.</li><li>Reaching near-record quarterly steel shipments of 3.3 million tons, Steel Dynamics demonstrated impressive control over its operations.</li><li>Four new value-added flat rolled steel coating lines were introduced that contribute to a product diversification that included 1.1 million tons of higher-margin products.</li></ul>

The first quarter 2024 results for Steel Dynamics Inc., display the strong performance of the company when considering their financial and operational undertakings.Reaching near-record quarterly steel shipments of 3.3 million tons, Steel Dynamics demonstrated impressive control over its operations.Four new value-added flat rolled steel coating lines were introduced that contribute to a product diversification that included 1.1 million tons of higher-margin products.

Steel Dynamics: How Long Will The Stability in Demand Across Operating Platforms Last? - Major Drivers

United States

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a diversified carbon-steel steel producer and metals recycler in the U.S, located in Fort Wayne, IN. The Company's operating segments include Steel Operations, Metals Recycling & Ferrous Resources Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. Steel Dynamics products include flat rolled steel sheet, engineered bar special-bar-quality, structural beams.

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Steel Dynamics (STLD US)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Steel Dynamics Inc.: Can Their Attempts Towards The Diversification Of Product Portfolio Catalyze Growth? - Major Drivers

Steel Dynamics provided a comprehensive update during their third quarter earnings call, outlining both growth trajectories and current...

Baptista Research

Steel Dynamics Inc.: A Dive Into Market Dynamics and Policy Tailwinds & Other Major Drivers

Steel Dynamics achieved notable results in the second quarter of 2024, with some mixed performances across different operational aspects. The...

Baptista Research

Steel Dynamics: How Long Will The Stability in Demand Across Operating Platforms Last? - Major Drivers

The first quarter 2024 results for Steel Dynamics Inc., display the strong performance of the company when considering their financial and...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

​Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Steel Dynamics Inc.: Can Their Attempts Towards The Diversification Of Product Portfolio Catalyze Growth? - Major Drivers

Steel Dynamics provided a comprehensive update during their third quarter earnings call, outlining both growth trajectories and current...

Baptista Research

Steel Dynamics Inc.: A Dive Into Market Dynamics and Policy Tailwinds & Other Major Drivers

Steel Dynamics achieved notable results in the second quarter of 2024, with some mixed performances across different operational aspects. The...

Baptista Research

Steel Dynamics: How Long Will The Stability in Demand Across Operating Platforms Last? - Major Drivers

The first quarter 2024 results for Steel Dynamics Inc., display the strong performance of the company when considering their financial and...

Baptista Research

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.