Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

The primary trend in U.S. equity markets remains bullish, and the usual suspects continue to lead: growth (Tech and FANG), homebuilders, industrials, etc.  Yet unusually bullish price patterns continue to develop in long-term laggards like energy (esp. E&amp;Ps), retail (XRT), and engineering &amp; construction (JEC).  We view this stabilization, or participation, in weak segments as a boost to the market’s breadth, a point of contention in recent months for some, who have pointed out that fewer stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages.  Attractive entry points are also visible in many cyclical Groups, especially Casinos and Investment Banks.  In today’s report we highlight actionable charts in both Groups... see pages 8-24]

The primary trend in U.S. equity markets remains bullish, and the usual suspects continue to lead: growth (Tech and FANG), homebuilders, industrials, etc.  Yet unusually bullish price patterns continue to develop in long-term laggards like energy (esp. E&amp;Ps), retail (XRT), and engineering &amp; construction (JEC).  We view this stabilization, or participation, in weak segments as a boost to the market’s breadth, a point of contention in recent months for some, who have pointed out that fewer stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages.  Attractive entry points are also visible in many cyclical Groups, especially Casinos and Investment Banks.  In today’s report we highlight actionable charts in both Groups... see pages 8-24]

U.S. Equity Weekly: Actionable Ideas in Casinos, Investment Banks

United States

Stifel Financial Corp. is a financial services holding company whose subsidiaries serve individual and institutional clients in the U.S. and Europe. The Company's broker-dealer affiliates provide wealth management, investment banking, independent research, trading, investment advisory, and related financial services.

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Stifel Financial (SF US)

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

We expect IBKR and possibly APP to join the S&P500 in September. We expect two deletes. MSTR has moved to second place BUT it has issues which...

Travis Lundy

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Weekly: Actionable Ideas in Casinos, Investment Banks

The primary trend in U.S. equity markets remains bullish, and the usual suspects continue to lead: growth (Tech and FANG), homebuilders,...

Vermilion Research

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