Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)</a> 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are expected to experience a strong rebound.</li>
<li>The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  </li>
</ul>


The ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT) 1Q24F outlook may be dim due to normal seasonality, resulting in a decline of mid-to-high single digits in revenue.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are expected to experience a strong rebound.
The 2024F outlook for ASEH indicates a low double-digit YoY growth.  


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>We assume that Intel's current business model is unable to fully meet the manufacturing needs in that case.</li>
<li>As for the Intel Foundry Business, we believe that there is potential upside for growth.</li>
<li>If Intel was doing great in Wafer Manufacturing Business, then why does it have to consider splitting up?</li>
</ul>


We assume that Intel's current business model is unable to fully meet the manufacturing needs in that case.
As for the Intel Foundry Business, we believe that there is potential upside for growth.
If Intel was doing great in Wafer Manufacturing Business, then why does it have to consider splitting up?


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. </li>
<li>Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.</li>
<li>China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. </li>
</ul>


Mobvoi, the innovative Chinese AI company backed by Google, Volkswagen Group, and top-tier VC firms, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The company plans to raise between $200M and $300M. 
Mobvoi is a rapidly growing AI unicorn. Revenue from AI software solutions skyrocketed 400%+ y/y in 2022. The company will launch AI painting assistant and AI writing assistant 2.0. soon.
China-Based startup chose CICC and CMB international to tap capital markets to develop universal LLM, market expansion, strategic alliances, acquisitions, and working capital. 


Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$7.2bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stocks in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

<ul>
<li>The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. </li>
<li>To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.</li>
<li>Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. </li>
</ul>


The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. 
To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.
Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. 


JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Switzerland

STMicroelectronics is a global leader in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and marketing of a wide range of semiconductor products. Its key offerings include microcontrollers, sensors, power management ICs, analog ICs, and MEMS for automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics markets. The company is headquartered in Plan-les-Ouates, Geneva, Switzerland, and was founded in 1987.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

STMicroelectronics (STM US)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?

Intel's current business model may not meet manufacturing needs, but there is potential for growth in the Intel Foundry Business, raising...

Patrick Liao

Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

TicWatch maker and provider of generative AI and interactive voice technologies, Mobvoi, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The AI company plans to raise...

Andrei Zakharov

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Usually, the 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we will expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively,...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 1Q24F Revenue Outlook Could Be Down Slightly QoQ; 2024F Should Grow ~10% YoY

​ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?

​Intel's current business model may not meet manufacturing needs, but there is potential for growth in the Intel Foundry Business, raising...

Patrick Liao

Mobvoi IPO: Rapidly Growing AI Unicorn And Creator of Universal LLM “Xuliehouzi.”

TicWatch maker and provider of generative AI and interactive voice technologies, Mobvoi, filed for a Hong Kong IPO. The AI company plans to raise...

Andrei Zakharov

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Big Flow, Small Impact

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$356m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Usually, the 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we will expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively,...

Patrick Liao

ASEH 1Q24F outlook is expected for a mid-to high single digits QoQ decline. Mediatek and NVDA are anticipated to a strong rebound in 1Q24F. ASEH's...

Intel's current business model may not meet manufacturing needs, but there is potential for growth in the Intel Foundry Business, raising...