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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI), discussing the global minimum tax (GMT).</li><li>The Cabinet meeting on March 7, 2023, resolved to support a global minimum tax rate of 15% for large multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a minimum annual income of EUR750mn under the OECD framework.</li><li>On June 17, 2024, the OECD Council, comprising 38 member countries, unanimously approved the commencement of accession discussions with Thailand.</li></ul>

On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI), discussing the global minimum tax (GMT).The Cabinet meeting on March 7, 2023, resolved to support a global minimum tax rate of 15% for large multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a minimum annual income of EUR750mn under the OECD framework.On June 17, 2024, the OECD Council, comprising 38 member countries, unanimously approved the commencement of accession discussions with Thailand.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).</li>
<li>ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.</li>
<li>On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. </li>
</ul>


KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).
ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.
On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. 


Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>Nothing has changed since our last BMM and the SET has underperformed as expected, declining further to 1,364.5 on 24-May versus 1,398.1 on 28-February.</li>
<li>Here we suggest on what the SET should do to move forward, now that the SET is seeking a new President. </li>
<li>Here are the five to-do list for SET. Read or Not...</li>
</ul>


Nothing has changed since our last BMM and the SET has underperformed as expected, declining further to 1,364.5 on 24-May versus 1,398.1 on 28-February.
Here we suggest on what the SET should do to move forward, now that the SET is seeking a new President. 
Here are the five to-do list for SET. Read or Not...


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). 

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

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Vietcap

Special Report: Global Minimum Tax

On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board...

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: June 2024

On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand: Ready (Re)SET Go!

Thailand's SET has underperformed as expected, declining further to 1,364.5 on 24-May versus 1,398.1 on 28-February. Here we suggest on what the...

Bondcritic

KTX Zoom - APRIL 26, 2024

echnically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349...

Krungthai XSpring