Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.</li><li>The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.</li><li>There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380/1,372 points.The index may rebound to 1,416/1,438 points again after it was able to reverse and breach the resistance at 1,390 points, forming a higher high and higher low pattern.There is risk of the index returning to a downward direction again if it closes below the key support at 1,380 points.

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move down, with the support at 1,386 points (10-day EMA)/1,379 points and the resistance at 1,396 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points.</li><li>Over the past three days, the index has formed a new round of higher highs and higher lows.</li><li>If it continues this pattern and establishes a high point above 1,403 points, it may test the resistance level of 1,416/1,436 points; conversely, a downward trend signal would emerge if the index falls below 1,388/1,380 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move down, with the support at 1,386 points (10-day EMA)/1,379 points and the resistance at 1,396 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points.Over the past three days, the index has formed a new round of higher highs and higher lows.If it continues this pattern and establishes a high point above 1,403 points, it may test the resistance level of 1,416/1,436 points; conversely, a downward trend signal would emerge if the index falls below 1,388/1,380 points.

KTX Zoom - Keep a Close Watch on EU 4Q23 GDP - Feb 14, 2024

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Asian bourses rebounded on expectations for economic stimulus in China.</li><li>The index was able to stand above 1,560 points steadily despite the selling pressure.</li><li>Consequently, the index should move up further, and breaching the 200-day EMA would demonstrate a clear rising trend.</li></ul>

Asian bourses rebounded on expectations for economic stimulus in China.The index was able to stand above 1,560 points steadily despite the selling pressure.Consequently, the index should move up further, and breaching the 200-day EMA would demonstrate a clear rising trend.

<ul><li>Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.</li><li>Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.</li><li>The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.</li></ul>

Greater clarity after the general election should ease worries over a possible coup and a delay in the formation of a coalition government, which we expect to consist of three parties, i.e., the Pheu Thai Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, in our base-case scenario; this would reduce the risk premium of the SET Index, pushing it up to our target of 1,607 points.Historical data from the five most recent elections shows that the SET increased by an average of +3.47% in the month after they were held; and in the week before and after the general elections took place, the index rose by 1.87% and 3.81%, respectively.The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH, ADVANC and MINT.

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Meat sector earnings in 1Q23E are expected to have fallen YoY and QoQ as broiler and swine prices have declined alongside increasing feed costs, pressuring gross profit margins.</li><li>In addition, demand has decreased at a faster pace than expected. We therefore revised down our two-year 2023-24E earnings projections by 4-39%.</li><li>This leads us to reduce the investment weighting on the sector, and we choose GFPT as our top pick after the share price weakened previously. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Meat sector earnings in 1Q23E are expected to have fallen YoY and QoQ as broiler and swine prices have declined alongside increasing feed costs, pressuring gross profit margins.In addition, demand has decreased at a faster pace than expected. We therefore revised down our two-year 2023-24E earnings projections by 4-39%.This leads us to reduce the investment weighting on the sector, and we choose GFPT as our top pick after the share price weakened previously. 

Meat Sector Expected to Report Lower 1Q23E Earnings YoY and QoQ; Earnings Revised Down

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Wait for Thailand’s 4Q23 GDP (Monday Morning) And U. Of Michigan Survey in US Tonight

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways up, with the resistance at 1,395 points (50-day EMA)/1,400 points and the support at 1,380...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - Keep a Close Watch on EU 4Q23 GDP - Feb 14, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move down, with the support at 1,386 points (10-day EMA)/1,379 points and the resistance at 1,396 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Selective Speculation

Asian bourses rebounded on expectations for economic stimulus in China. The index was able to stand above 1,560 points steadily despite the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: Election Rally (History to Repeat Itself)

The biggest gainers were the finance, property development and ICT sectors. We thus recommend speculating on SIRI, SC, SCB, KBANK, CPALL, INTUCH,...

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector Expected to Report Lower 1Q23E Earnings YoY and QoQ; Earnings Revised Down

Meat sector earnings in 1Q23E are expected to have fallen YoY and QoQ as broiler and swine prices have declined alongside increasing feed costs,...

Krungthai XSpring