Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.</li>
<li>The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.


MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc (MSTR US)</a>'s Michael Saylor will now assume the new role of Executive Chairman and Phong Le, MSTR’s President, will serve as the company’s new CEO.</li>
<li>As Executive Chairman, Saylor will focus more on MSTR's bitcoin acquisition strategy and related bitcoin advocacy initiatives.</li>
<li>With one of the most bullish and influential players in the industry now focusing on crypto, this should be considered bullish, according to some media reports. That's a desperate takeaway.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc (MSTR US)'s Michael Saylor will now assume the new role of Executive Chairman and Phong Le, MSTR’s President, will serve as the company’s new CEO.
As Executive Chairman, Saylor will focus more on MSTR's bitcoin acquisition strategy and related bitcoin advocacy initiatives.
With one of the most bullish and influential players in the industry now focusing on crypto, this should be considered bullish, according to some media reports. That's a desperate takeaway.


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Saylor Mirrors Bitcoin's Fall

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US)</a> is trading at a ~2% discount to NAV as the crypto rout moves into a higher gear.  </li>
<li>Bitcoin briefly dipped below US$25k in the last 24 hours, an 18-month low. If it falls another 18%, this will trigger a margin call on one of MicroStrategy's loans.</li>
<li>All is not well elsewhere in cryptoland. Ethereum touched a 17-month low; the Luna/Terra ecosystem has crashed; and crypto lender Celsus capitulated ~60% this morning after freezing withdrawals. </li>
</ul>



MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US) is trading at a ~2% discount to NAV as the crypto rout moves into a higher gear.  
Bitcoin briefly dipped below US$25k in the last 24 hours, an 18-month low. If it falls another 18%, this will trigger a margin call on one of MicroStrategy's loans.
All is not well elsewhere in cryptoland. Ethereum touched a 17-month low; the Luna/Terra ecosystem has crashed; and crypto lender Celsus capitulated ~60% this morning after freezing withdrawals. 


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): It's Cratering Time

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">MicroStrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> is now trading at a ~26% discount to NAV as the bitcoin barbeque continues.  </li>
<li>Bitcoin is down ~40% YTD. If it falls another 24%, this will trigger a margin call on one of its loans.</li>
<li>Should bitcoin decline to US$17.5k, MSTR's crypto bet falls short of its debt obligation; debt that its software ops are not sufficiently profitable enough to service. </li>
</ul>



MicroStrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) is now trading at a ~26% discount to NAV as the bitcoin barbeque continues.  
Bitcoin is down ~40% YTD. If it falls another 24%, this will trigger a margin call on one of its loans.
Should bitcoin decline to US$17.5k, MSTR's crypto bet falls short of its debt obligation; debt that its software ops are not sufficiently profitable enough to service. 


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> reported a net loss of $155.6mn in the fourth quarter, compared to the net loss of $124.3mn in the 4Q21. </li>
<li>MSTR took a non-cash digital asset impairment charge of $170.1mn in the first quarter, up from $146.6mn in the 4Q21. </li>
<li>A bet on MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. Yet MSTR is down 37% YTD, compared to ~20% for bitcoin. </li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) reported a net loss of $155.6mn in the fourth quarter, compared to the net loss of $124.3mn in the 4Q21. 
MSTR took a non-cash digital asset impairment charge of $170.1mn in the first quarter, up from $146.6mn in the 4Q21. 
A bet on MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. Yet MSTR is down 37% YTD, compared to ~20% for bitcoin. 


Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker

United States

Strategy Inc operates a bitcoin treasury company. The Company offers an equity and fixed income instruments to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin, as well as develops enterprise analytics software to explore improvement in bitcoin applications. Strategy serves customers worldwide.

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Strategy (MSTR US)

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Saylor Mirrors Bitcoin's Fall

At this level, I'd be putting Microstrategy (MSTR US) on the short again. I see zero justification for a 92% NAV premium.

David Blennerhassett

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): It's Cratering Time

In my last note, I recommended covering. That was an apt call. I would be putting on the short again here. The NAV discount could easily widen out...

David Blennerhassett

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?

MSTR may shortly boast a highly volatile investment, which is surpassed by a very real debt obligation, which is inadequately serviced by a modest,...

David Blennerhassett

Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker

I'm still not even remotely a buyer of this strategy. Arguably that "store of value" bet paid off in late 2020. But it hasn't worked for near on 17...

David Blennerhassett

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