Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strategy is primarily positioned as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin worldwide, having accumulated approximately 843,775 Bitcoin, which equates to roughly 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.</li><li>The company’s market capitalization stands near $38 billion, with Bitcoin reserves valued around $55 billion.</li><li>Since adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in 2020, Strategy has consistently increased its Bitcoin holdings through 113 acquisitions, though the average acquisition cost of approximately $64 billion implies a higher average purchase price per Bitcoin (~$75,000) than the current market price (~$58,700 as of Q2-end), resulting in significant unrealized losses.</li></ul>

Strategy is primarily positioned as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin worldwide, having accumulated approximately 843,775 Bitcoin, which equates to roughly 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.The company’s market capitalization stands near $38 billion, with Bitcoin reserves valued around $55 billion.Since adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset in 2020, Strategy has consistently increased its Bitcoin holdings through 113 acquisitions, though the average acquisition cost of approximately $64 billion implies a higher average purchase price per Bitcoin (~$75,000) than the current market price (~$58,700 as of Q2-end), resulting in significant unrealized losses.

Strategy’s $55 Billion Bitcoin Reserve — But The Market Values The Company Near $38 Billion!

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strategy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Strategy (MSTR US)</a> has conditioned shareholders that everything is groovy; provided its market cap exceeds its bitcoin holdings. That's no longer valid.</li>
<li>The board's narrative has now shifted from "never sell BTC, reserves alone will cover us", to an explicit formalised capital framework treating bitcoin as a monetisable backstop for dividend/interest obligations.</li>
<li>Tellingly (ominously?), Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins late June/early July, its largest sale ever, at a weighted average of $60,197/bitcoin, below its $75,476/bitcoin average in-cost.</li>
</ul>



Strategy (MSTR US) has conditioned shareholders that everything is groovy; provided its market cap exceeds its bitcoin holdings. That's no longer valid.
The board's narrative has now shifted from "never sell BTC, reserves alone will cover us", to an explicit formalised capital framework treating bitcoin as a monetisable backstop for dividend/interest obligations.
Tellingly (ominously?), Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoins late June/early July, its largest sale ever, at a weighted average of $60,197/bitcoin, below its $75,476/bitcoin average in-cost.


Strategy (MSTR US)'s "Strategy" Unravels. What A Surprise. Not

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025 - maybe $10bn a side. There are also a couple of live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equinix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17409:1" rel="noopener">Equinix Inc (EQIX US)</a> is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.</li>
</ul>



Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) is anticipated to be the largest addition following its eligibility, which was secured through a listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq just before the cut-off date.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) is projected to exit the index despite its recent entry in July 2024, as it has ranked above the exit threshold of 125.

ARM Holdings (ARM US) is not an expected deletion due to special ADR market cap treatment. Equinix Inc (EQIX US) is not an expected addition because it is a REIT.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

United States

Strategy Inc operates a bitcoin treasury company. The Company offers an equity and fixed income instruments to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin, as well as develops enterprise analytics software to explore improvement in bitcoin applications. Strategy serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Strategy (MSTR US)

Strategy’s $55 Billion Bitcoin Reserve — But The Market Values The Company Near $38 Billion!

Strategy is primarily positioned as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin worldwide, having accumulated approximately 843,775 Bitcoin, which...

Baptista Research

Strategy (MSTR US)'s "Strategy" Unravels. What A Surprise. Not

The narrative has shifted from never sell bitcoins, to sell them if needed to meet obligations. If you're a bitcoin fan, buy ETFs. I probably...

David Blennerhassett

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/400/600 Sep25 Rebal: Two Possible Changes, But One Iffy

We expect IBKR and possibly APP to join the S&P500 in September. We expect two deletes. MSTR has moved to second place BUT it has issues which...

Travis Lundy

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecast (Final): Palantir's Last-Minute Entry; Arm's Subtle Retention

F1: 100%. All of the forecasts matched the index changes announced at the close of Friday 13 December. SMCI fell more than 11% in premarket trading...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)