Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.</li><li>The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.</li><li>This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.</li></ul>

MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.The company is undergoing significant transformation, with its rebranding reflecting its commitment to business intelligence and its role as a major Bitcoin treasury company.This name change and strategic shift symbolize a simplification of its identity while retaining continuity with its past and setting ambitious goals for future growth in digital assets and business intelligence.

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>Stifel is a leading middle market investment bank with a large equity research franchise</li><li>Stifel has won the J.D. Power Award for Employee Advisor satisfaction two years in a row</li><li>The Odd Lots podcast discusses topics like MicroStrategy's perpetual motion machine and leveraged bitcoin investments</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Stifel is a leading middle market investment bank with a large equity research franchiseStifel has won the J.D. Power Award for Employee Advisor satisfaction two years in a rowThe Odd Lots podcast discusses topics like MicroStrategy's perpetual motion machine and leveraged bitcoin investmentsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lots More with Matt Levine on MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Machine

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.</li>
</ul>


JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.

Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.</li>
<li>Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.</li>
<li>Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.
Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.
Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor's New Clothes?

United States

Strategy Inc operates a bitcoin treasury company. The Company offers an equity and fixed income instruments to provide investors varying degrees of economic exposure to bitcoin, as well as develops enterprise analytics software to explore improvement in bitcoin applications. Strategy serves customers worldwide.

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Strategy (MSTR US)

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

MicroStrategy Incorporated: How Is The Management Embracing Volatility & Innovative Capital Structures?

MicroStrategy Incorporated, now rebranded as Strategy, recently held its earnings call to discuss the performance and strategic developments for...

Baptista Research

Lots More with Matt Levine on MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Machine

Stifel is a top investment bank with a strong equity research arm, offering podcasts like Bloomberg Audio Studios and Odd Lots, which recently...

Odd Lots

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): A Monetary Good Or Emperor's New Clothes?

MSTR appears a clear short. And long bitcoin. But I won't advocate that, preferring to watch from the sidelines on the world's biggest bet on bitcoin.

David Blennerhassett

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