European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.</li>
<li>Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.


Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year-on-year and a margin of 15%.</li>
<li>The company's revenue increased by 10% to $1.5 billion, primarily driven by robust performances in both its Subsea and Conventional and Renewables business units.</li>
<li>The net income was $17 million after accounting for depreciation, amortization, and other financial costs.</li>
</ul>


Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year-on-year and a margin of 15%.
The company's revenue increased by 10% to $1.5 billion, primarily driven by robust performances in both its Subsea and Conventional and Renewables business units.
The net income was $17 million after accounting for depreciation, amortization, and other financial costs.


Subsea 7: Dominating the Energy Transition With a $600M U.S. Foothold & Expanding Backlog!

<ul>
<li>The Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create a global leader in energy services with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA by leveraging complementary strengths.</li>
<li>Subsea 7 shareholders benefit from a €450 million extraordinary dividend and an exchange ratio of 6.688 Saipem shares per share, leading to a premium relative to Saipem’s valuation.</li>
<li>Market skepticism persists, reflected in Saipem’s declining share price, suggesting concerns over integration risks, regulatory challenges, and relative valuation imbalances in the merger structure.</li>
</ul>


The Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create a global leader in energy services with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA by leveraging complementary strengths.
Subsea 7 shareholders benefit from a €450 million extraordinary dividend and an exchange ratio of 6.688 Saipem shares per share, leading to a premium relative to Saipem’s valuation.
Market skepticism persists, reflected in Saipem’s declining share price, suggesting concerns over integration risks, regulatory challenges, and relative valuation imbalances in the merger structure.


Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...</li>
<li>...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059</li>
<li>Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...
...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More


DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. </li>
</ul>



7&amp;I (3382 JP)'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

United Kingdom

Subsea 7 SA offers oilfield services.  The Company designs, fabricates, builds and installs equipment for the offshore oil industry.  Subsea 7 builds flexible flowlines, risers, umbilicals and other equipment.  The Company operates in the Gulf of Mexico, the Asia Pacific region, the North Sea and the Mediterranean; and offshore Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

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Subsea 7 SA (SUBC NO)

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Saipem–Subsea7 merger offers +4.3% spread and 7–11% annualized arb returns with dividends locked; regulatory risk remains, but shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Subsea 7: Dominating the Energy Transition With a $600M U.S. Foothold & Expanding Backlog!

Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year...

Baptista Research

Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Saipem–Subsea7 merger offers +4.3% spread and 7–11% annualized arb returns with dividends locked; regulatory risk remains, but shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Subsea 7: Dominating the Energy Transition With a $600M U.S. Foothold & Expanding Backlog!

Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year...

Baptista Research

Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

​Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...