European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.</li>
<li>Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.


Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year-on-year and a margin of 15%.</li>
<li>The company's revenue increased by 10% to $1.5 billion, primarily driven by robust performances in both its Subsea and Conventional and Renewables business units.</li>
<li>The net income was $17 million after accounting for depreciation, amortization, and other financial costs.</li>
</ul>


Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year-on-year and a margin of 15%.
The company's revenue increased by 10% to $1.5 billion, primarily driven by robust performances in both its Subsea and Conventional and Renewables business units.
The net income was $17 million after accounting for depreciation, amortization, and other financial costs.


Subsea 7: Dominating the Energy Transition With a $600M U.S. Foothold & Expanding Backlog!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

United Kingdom

Subsea 7 SA offers oilfield services.  The Company designs, fabricates, builds and installs equipment for the offshore oil industry.  Subsea 7 builds flexible flowlines, risers, umbilicals and other equipment.  The Company operates in the Gulf of Mexico, the Asia Pacific region, the North Sea and the Mediterranean; and offshore Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Subsea 7 SA (SUBC NO)

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Saipem–Subsea7 merger offers +4.3% spread and 7–11% annualized arb returns with dividends locked; regulatory risk remains, but shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Subsea 7: Dominating the Energy Transition With a $600M U.S. Foothold & Expanding Backlog!

Subsea 7 reported strong financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA of $236 million, reflecting a 46% growth year...

Baptista Research

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)