Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.</li>
<li>Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.</li>
<li>A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.
Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.
A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!


SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Capacity utilization at Sumco's largest customer, TSMC, jumped 10% in Q2, with another core customer, Renesas, showing consecutive improvements.</li>
<li>Surging AI chip demand and geopolitical shifts favoring non-Chinese suppliers are set to boost demand for high-end silicon wafers.</li>
<li>The stock trades at 0.7x book and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. These are levels we think the stock can make a meaningful upward advance from if the improvement in customer inventories broadens.</li>
</ul>


Capacity utilization at Sumco's largest customer, TSMC, jumped 10% in Q2, with another core customer, Renesas, showing consecutive improvements.
Surging AI chip demand and geopolitical shifts favoring non-Chinese suppliers are set to boost demand for high-end silicon wafers.
The stock trades at 0.7x book and 4.9x EV/EBITDA. These are levels we think the stock can make a meaningful upward advance from if the improvement in customer inventories broadens.


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap higher after positive comments from JPM on ASML that the worst is behind it given strong WFE and memory trends.</li>
<li>Wafer names surging globally as demand for memory outstrips supply, while Wolfspeed announces its has reached 200m SiC capability.</li>
<li>A brave short seller for Coreweave calling it a “debt fuelled GPU rental business with no moat”.</li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap higher after positive comments from JPM on ASML that the worst is behind it given strong WFE and memory trends.
Wafer names surging globally as demand for memory outstrips supply, while Wolfspeed announces its has reached 200m SiC capability.
A brave short seller for Coreweave calling it a “debt fuelled GPU rental business with no moat”.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Plateauing Ahead of Fed, but Semi's Still Managing to Tick Higher

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.</li><li>MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.</li><li>Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.</li></ul>

Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!

William Keating

Sumco (3436): So, This Is How Slumps Die

Unprecidented growth in customer inventory is what started Sumco's slump, but now customers are reporting increased capacity utilization, driven by...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Plateauing Ahead of Fed, but Semi's Still Managing to Tick Higher

Apple suppliers sent higher after announcement of Apple involvement with IC packaging. Power and industrial semi's shaking off China's anti-dumping...

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Sumco to cease silicon wafer production in Miyazaki by 2026, MediaTek revenue up in January, Pegatron steady amid transition, Trump imposes steel...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

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