Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade</li>
<li>Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover</li>
<li>It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. </li>
</ul>


Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, the lowest in a decade
Demand for Epitaxial wafers (used for Logic) is not going to recover until EOY'23. Demand for Polished wafers (used for Memory) will likely take until H2'24 to recover
It could potentially take until 2026 for supply and demand to return to balance. 


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level to cose up +1.4%; Nasdaq 100 enters BULL MARKET;  Micron +7% Intel +7.6%  spurs sentiment around Semi recovery. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥132.8;  Dividend x-Date today - expect ~¥1trill of reinvestment BUYING in total; New Toyota CEO vows to get serious about EVs -about time</li>
<li>NUGGET. Incoming CEO Makiko Ono - Set to Further Globalize Suntory Beverage.  If she can execute, stock looks like a bargain. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level to cose up +1.4%; Nasdaq 100 enters BULL MARKET;  Micron +7% Intel +7.6%  spurs sentiment around Semi recovery. 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY ¥132.8;  Dividend x-Date today - expect ~¥1trill of reinvestment BUYING in total; New Toyota CEO vows to get serious about EVs -about time
NUGGET. Incoming CEO Makiko Ono - Set to Further Globalize Suntory Beverage.  If she can execute, stock looks like a bargain. 


Good Morning Japan |NASDAQ BULL MARKET! NUGGET: CEO Makiko Ono-Set to Further Globalize Suntory Bev

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Choppy Session with SPX closing -0.2%;  Tech down again as reversal continues;  US 2Yr yield back above 4%, Alibaba +14% split to unlock value; Micron after hours-worst over?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine with MSFT-ATVI, -ve Sony; Alibaba Split +ve Softbank</li>
<li>NUGGET. Panasonic - Potential beneficiary of new IRA related deal with the US. Could see IRA EV tax credit rise from ¥172bn/year to ¥228bn/year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Choppy Session with SPX closing -0.2%;  Tech down again as reversal continues;  US 2Yr yield back above 4%, Alibaba +14% split to unlock value; Micron after hours-worst over?
JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.0% vs Cash; USDJPY 130.9; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine with MSFT-ATVI, -ve Sony; Alibaba Split +ve Softbank
NUGGET. Panasonic - Potential beneficiary of new IRA related deal with the US. Could see IRA EV tax credit rise from ¥172bn/year to ¥228bn/year.


Good Morning Japan |Choppy Equities; Weak Tech; NUGGET: Panasonic-New US Tax Credit Opportunity?

<ul>
<li>Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast</li>
<li>Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of sequential revenue growth</li>
<li>Details of the funding available under the US CHIPS Act for Globalwafers Sherman, Texas greenfield expansion still remain unclear</li>
</ul>


Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast
Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of sequential revenue growth
Details of the funding available under the US CHIPS Act for Globalwafers Sherman, Texas greenfield expansion still remain unclear


Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways

<ul>
<li>Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023</li>
<li>For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.</li>
<li>Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments. </li>
</ul>


Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined ~4% sequentially in Q4 2022. We anticipate a further 10% sequential decline in area shipments in Q1 2023
For 2023, we expect wafer shipments to decline by around 5% YoY with weakness in H1 offset by strength in demand in H2.
Despite the decline in area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long Term Agreements and customer prepayments. 


Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Silicon Wafers Imminent Capacity Glut

Wafer demand in 2023 has fallen to just 86% of global capacity, lowest in a decade. It could take until 2026 for global supply and demand to return...

William Keating

Good Morning Japan |NASDAQ BULL MARKET! NUGGET: CEO Makiko Ono-Set to Further Globalize Suntory Bev

In the US, NASDAQ 100 enters bull market. Broad based US rally. In Japan, Tech to lead; Drivers today: US rally, weaker yen; Underweight investors...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Choppy Equities; Weak Tech; NUGGET: Panasonic-New US Tax Credit Opportunity?

US Markets Choppy; Tech down again; Japan set to approve 114trill budget; US-Japan strikes deal on EV battery materials Under IRA; Japan's FTA fine...

Mark Chadwick

Globalwafers Q4 2022 Earnings Key Takeaways

Globalwafers is bucking the trend with a sequentially flat CY2023 revenue forecast. Q4 2022 delivered the company's twelfth successive quarter of...

William Keating

Semiconductor Silicon Wafers Segment Q4 2022 Roundup & 2023 Outlook

Despite the anticipated 5% YoY decline in wafer area shipments, we expect the sector to remain strongly profitable, bolstered by the impact of Long...

William Keating

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