Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.</li>
<li>The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.</li>
</ul>


During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.


Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.</li>
<li>Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">TEL (8035)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai (6525).</a>
</li>
<li>Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamaha-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7411:1" rel="noopener">Yamaha Motor (7272 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">KHI (7012 JP)</a> rebound sharply also.</li>
</ul>


ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see Softbank Group (9984 JP) rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.
Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of TEL (8035) and Kokusai (6525).

Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) and KHI (7012 JP) rebound sharply also.


Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

<ul>
<li>Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release</li>
<li>Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs</li>
<li>In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit</li>
</ul>


Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release
Inventory levels, while gradually improving, are still at all time record highs
In the case of Siltronic, it seems likely that Automotive end-market weakness is the main culprit


Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

<ul>
<li>Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019</li>
<li>Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable</li>
<li>China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. </li>
</ul>


Ferrotec's production of 150mm wafers in China has increased &gt;6x since 2019
Siltronic's production of 150mm and smaller wafer diameters is no longer profitable
China likely now self-sufficient in the supply of 150mm and smaller diameter silicon wafers. Next milestone: 200mm wafers. 


Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Ferrotec's 150mm capacity in China >6x since 2019. Siltronic's 150mm & smaller wafers no longer profitable.China likely now self-sufficient in...

William Keating

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

​ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...

Andrew Jackson

Siltronic Slashes 2024 Sales Forecast As Inventory Woes Worsen

Siltronic cut its 2024 sales revenue forecast by 10% just days ahead of their Q124 earnings release. It seems likely that Automotive end-market...

William Keating

Siltronic To Exit Small Diameter Wafer Market by 2025

Ferrotec's 150mm capacity in China >6x since 2019. Siltronic's 150mm & smaller wafers no longer profitable.China likely now self-sufficient in...

William Keating

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

ARM stock surges after broker upgrade, Softbank Group rebounds, tech rally in US boosts Japan market, leisure and powersports names rally in US...