Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Globalfoundries +16% after a solid beat which shows gains from diversification into silicon photonics and low earth orbit satellites.</li>
<li>GS talking up Sandisk +10.7%, but expect the market to remains jittery ahead of Kioxia numbers today on the close.</li>
<li>Sumco headline numbers miss, but cost front loading and inventory reductions points to a better 2H.</li>
</ul>


Globalfoundries +16% after a solid beat which shows gains from diversification into silicon photonics and low earth orbit satellites.
GS talking up Sandisk +10.7%, but expect the market to remains jittery ahead of Kioxia numbers today on the close.
Sumco headline numbers miss, but cost front loading and inventory reductions points to a better 2H.


Japan Morning Connection: Semi-Cap Jumps Higher While Software Takes a Hit (Again) Over AI Concerns

<ul>
<li>Alphabet announces massive capex plans well ahead of ests as a bright spot, but sentiment is down.</li>
<li>ARM and Qualcomm miss after hours as memory shortage concerns increase.</li>
<li>Home Builders rise on plans for low cost "Trump Homes" which may free up access to federal funding.</li>
</ul>


Alphabet announces massive capex plans well ahead of ests as a bright spot, but sentiment is down.
ARM and Qualcomm miss after hours as memory shortage concerns increase.
Home Builders rise on plans for low cost "Trump Homes" which may free up access to federal funding.


Japan Morning Connection: AMD Weakness Sparks Wide Spread Sell-Off Likely to Continue in US Tmrw

<ul>
<li>Bullish growth estimates from AMD will help alleviate negativity to start.</li>
<li>Yesterday saw some disappointing SPE/semi results from Kokusai Elec, Sumco and JX Advanced metals.</li>
<li>Sony surprised to the upside with a flurry of analysts weighing in with TP hikes overnight.</li>
</ul>


Bullish growth estimates from AMD will help alleviate negativity to start.
Yesterday saw some disappointing SPE/semi results from Kokusai Elec, Sumco and JX Advanced metals.
Sony surprised to the upside with a flurry of analysts weighing in with TP hikes overnight.


Japan Morning Connection: Softbank Numbers Smash Estimates, but Selling NVDA Sours Market Overall

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.</li>
<li>We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 5+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. So far, the latest pullback is testing the uptrend -- buy/stay long.
We are buying the test of 7-month base support in Europe (EURO STOXX 50). China's Shanghai Composite points to a second chance breakout attempt above 1.5-month resistance -- buy/stay long


5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

<ul>
<li>Lawmakers accuse semi-caps for helping make China make chips. What else would their equipment do?</li>
<li>HDD names swoon yet pure play Sandisk stays firm. Wafers down after small-cap Aehr somehow rattles markets.</li>
<li>Mixed tape for Homebuilders with James Hardie surging on numbers while rest of sector sags on a downgrade.</li>
</ul>


Lawmakers accuse semi-caps for helping make China make chips. What else would their equipment do?
HDD names swoon yet pure play Sandisk stays firm. Wafers down after small-cap Aehr somehow rattles markets.
Mixed tape for Homebuilders with James Hardie surging on numbers while rest of sector sags on a downgrade.


Japan Morning Connection: Semi's Correct Finally, but Already Seeing Dip Buying off Lows Overnight

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Semi-Cap Jumps Higher While Software Takes a Hit (Again) Over AI Concerns

Sumco likely to see a sharp drop to start. Power semi's doing well yesterday a positive for related JP names today. Wealth management and R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AMD Weakness Sparks Wide Spread Sell-Off Likely to Continue in US Tmrw

Bloodbath for tech and AI overnight led lower by AMD after earnings disappointed. Some rebounds in heavily sold software names after Jensen Huang...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Softbank Numbers Smash Estimates, but Selling NVDA Sours Market Overall

NVDA spooked by Softbank selling its stake to pay for AI investments. Coreweave's reduced sales guidance contributed to the widespread weakness.

Andrew Jackson

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); China Second Chance Breakout Likely

5+ Month Uptrend Support Holding on MSCI $ACWI; Bullish Outlook Intact; China Second Chance Breakout Likely on Shanghai Composite. Buying the test...

Vermilion Research

Japan Morning Connection: Semi's Correct Finally, but Already Seeing Dip Buying off Lows Overnight

Advantest may emerge as an SPE sector relative short. May be a chance to double dip on wafer companies after a US wafer testing firm dropped 17.4%.

Andrew Jackson

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