Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.</li>
<li>These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.</li>
<li>KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.
These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.
KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.


Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.</li>
<li>Relevant notes: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176843" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-price-range-is-fair" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:178246" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair</a>.</li>
<li>Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) priced its IPO at JPY820 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$2.5 billion. The shares will start trading on 19 March.
Relevant notes: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair.
Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the price is fair.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.</li>
<li>Relevant notes - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176843" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177609" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair. </li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has announced an IPO price range of JPY810-820 per share, which is 6.0%-4.9% below the IPO reference price range of JPY862.
Relevant notes - JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range, suggesting that the price range is fair. 


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176843" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jcr-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20126:1" rel="noopener">Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP)</a> announced H1 results, with revenue -¥7.6bn ytd vs last year, of which a decrease in contract revenue was -¥7.1bn. Full year guidance remains unchanged.</li>
<li>The expectation was that Contract Revenue (which was basically zero in H1) was going to be backloaded anyway. Historically, seasonality is bumpy on this name. </li>
<li>The company also announced a buyback. We can tell who the seller is likely to be. The buyback event may be gamed. </li>
</ul>


Today, Jcr Pharmaceuticals (4552 JP) announced H1 results, with revenue -¥7.6bn ytd vs last year, of which a decrease in contract revenue was -¥7.1bn. Full year guidance remains unchanged.
The expectation was that Contract Revenue (which was basically zero in H1) was going to be backloaded anyway. Historically, seasonality is bumpy on this name. 
The company also announced a buyback. We can tell who the seller is likely to be. The buyback event may be gamed. 


JCR Pharma (4552) - Uglyish In-Line Results But a Buyback Opportunity for Someone

Japan

SUMITOMO CHEMICAL COMPANY, LIMITED manufactures chemical products.  The Company specializes in basic chemicals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals such as photo-resists, pharmaceutical intermediates, and agrochemicals.  Sumitomo Chemical operates manufacturing plants and sales offices worldwide.

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Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP)

Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...

Michael Allen

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the...

Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range of JPY810-820, suggesting that the price range is fair.

Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.

Arun George

JCR Pharma (4552) - Uglyish In-Line Results But a Buyback Opportunity for Someone

Contract pharmaceutical smallcap sponsored by Medipal and crossholders JCR Pharma produces ugly H1 results, but they appear "in-line." Guidance is...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Long-Overdue Consolidation in Japanese Chemicals Drives Growth & Mispricing

​Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...

Michael Allen

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

Since the price range was announced, the peers have modestly re-rated. My SoTP valuation of JPY859 is slightly above the IPO price, suggesting the...

Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Price Range Is Fair

My SoTP valuation of JPY860 is modestly above the IPO price range of JPY810-820, suggesting that the price range is fair.

Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that JXAM is attractively valued at the IPO price compared to peer multiples.

Arun George

JCR Pharma (4552) - Uglyish In-Line Results But a Buyback Opportunity for Someone

Contract pharmaceutical smallcap sponsored by Medipal and crossholders JCR Pharma produces ugly H1 results, but they appear "in-line." Guidance is...

Travis Lundy

Consolidation in Japan's chemicals industry leading to fewer companies, higher profitability, and potential for growth in undervalued outliers...