Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cable laggards SEI -16%, Furukawa -14% and Fujikura -10% over the last 5 sessions. Worth looking at for solid upside as the market scrambles for laggards.</li>
<li>Softbank only +1.5% Friday despite ARM +11%. Could see a rebound today if fears from margin loan struggles fade.</li>
<li>Japanese names are likely to give Friday’s gains back but excessive weakness could be an opportunity to reengage ahead of the dust settling post-SpaceX.</li>
</ul>


Cable laggards SEI -16%, Furukawa -14% and Fujikura -10% over the last 5 sessions. Worth looking at for solid upside as the market scrambles for laggards.
Softbank only +1.5% Friday despite ARM +11%. Could see a rebound today if fears from margin loan struggles fade.
Japanese names are likely to give Friday’s gains back but excessive weakness could be an opportunity to reengage ahead of the dust settling post-SpaceX.


Japan Morning Connection: Cable and Optical Laggards in Focus as AI Strength Returns

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities underperformed US markets this week, experiencing a sharp sector rotation as semiconductor stocks surged while previous momentum leaders suffered significant profit-taking.</li>
<li>Despite firm domestic consumption and credit growth, Japan faces mounting pressure from rising producer inflation and business sentiment declines driven by global geopolitical conflicts.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan faces a difficult dilemma, weighing the need for further monetary tightening in spite of risks of economic slowdown.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities underperformed US markets this week, experiencing a sharp sector rotation as semiconductor stocks surged while previous momentum leaders suffered significant profit-taking.
Despite firm domestic consumption and credit growth, Japan faces mounting pressure from rising producer inflation and business sentiment declines driven by global geopolitical conflicts.
The Bank of Japan faces a difficult dilemma, weighing the need for further monetary tightening in spite of risks of economic slowdown.


<ul>
<li>Ibiden -27% since start of month but set to recover as Intel wins Google TPU deal. TEL, Lasertec, Screen and TOK also set for a stronger session.</li>
<li>Fujikura and peers should be helped by Corning's multi-billion dollar Amazon optical fiber deal.</li>
<li>Softbank -23% since start of month looking attractive as OpenAI formally announces IPO plans.</li>
</ul>


Ibiden -27% since start of month but set to recover as Intel wins Google TPU deal. TEL, Lasertec, Screen and TOK also set for a stronger session.
Fujikura and peers should be helped by Corning's multi-billion dollar Amazon optical fiber deal.
Softbank -23% since start of month looking attractive as OpenAI formally announces IPO plans.


Japan Morning Connection: Ibiden Set to Recover as Intel Wins Google TPU Deal

<ul>
<li>Kioxia +650% YTD, and the most crowded name on the TSE, likely to face sharp selling at the open.</li>
<li>Optical fiber names Furukawa, SEI and Fujikura all in the firing line along with MLCC plays Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK.</li>
<li>Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia +650% YTD, and the most crowded name on the TSE, likely to face sharp selling at the open.
Optical fiber names Furukawa, SEI and Fujikura all in the firing line along with MLCC plays Taiyo Yuden, Murata and TDK.
Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.


Japan Morning Connection: AI Rally Faces a Correction After SOX Has Biggest Drop in 6 Years

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

Japan

Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd. manufactures electric wires, cables, and their related equipment.  The Company's products include optical fibers, wire harnesses, antennas for broadcasting stations, and electric monitoring systems.  Sumitomo Electric also produces disc brakes and antilock braking systems for automobiles and printed circuit board.

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Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Cable and Optical Laggards in Focus as AI Strength Returns

Cable laggards SEI and Furukawa worth watching as AI strength returns. Softbank looks set to rebound on ARM's surge. Chiyoda looks well placed as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Sector Rotation

Japanese equities struggled this week with sector rotation and profit-taking, as rising producer inflation and global conflicts weigh on business...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Ibiden Set to Recover as Intel Wins Google TPU Deal

Intel's Google TPU win may lift Ibiden, while Corning's Amazon deal may help Fujikura recover. Panasonic could see a lift on AI infrastructure plans.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AI Rally Faces a Correction After SOX Has Biggest Drop in 6 Years

SOX worst day in 6 years leaves Japan's AI names facing a tough open. Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.

Andrew Jackson

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Cable and Optical Laggards in Focus as AI Strength Returns

Cable laggards SEI and Furukawa worth watching as AI strength returns. Softbank looks set to rebound on ARM's surge. Chiyoda looks well placed as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Sector Rotation

​Japanese equities struggled this week with sector rotation and profit-taking, as rising producer inflation and global conflicts weigh on business...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Ibiden Set to Recover as Intel Wins Google TPU Deal

Intel's Google TPU win may lift Ibiden, while Corning's Amazon deal may help Fujikura recover. Panasonic could see a lift on AI infrastructure plans.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AI Rally Faces a Correction After SOX Has Biggest Drop in 6 Years

SOX worst day in 6 years leaves Japan's AI names facing a tough open. Expect a sharp rotation back to domestic defensives and the software plays.

Andrew Jackson

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

Japanese equities struggled this week with sector rotation and profit-taking, as rising producer inflation and global conflicts weigh on business...