Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs – it’s this technical panorama that confirms a risk-on environment, and supports a bullish outlook. Ignore the daily charts—the source of noise—and stick with the weeklies—they tell the true story: up and to the right.In today’s report, we highlight actionable themes in two countries (Japan and Norway) and one sector (energy).

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On the 4th of February the Nikkei <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Deals/Toyota-near-tie-up-with-Suzuki-on-development-procurement" target="_blank">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/732" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1">Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP)</a> were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20528" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1">Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP)</a> may feel particularly pressured…

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an alliance on development and procurement. This was confirmed by the companies today with the statement that the broad terms of the deal have been agreed upon. The move continues a series of tie-ups conducted by Toyota in recent years and could place pressure on other players to seek similar tie-ups. Mazda Motor Corp (7261 JP) may feel particularly pressured…

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.</li>
</ul>


There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year and there has been a move higher in the last few days too.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

Japan

SUMITOMO HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures and markets heavy electric machinery.  The Company's operations include heavy machinery, shipbuilding, mass-production machinery, environmental equipment, and construction machinery divisions.  Sumitomo Heavy Industries also produces equipment for semiconductor and laser technologies.

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Sumitomo Heavy Industries (6302 JP)

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Japan Is Breaking Out; Energy Stocks Are Bottoming; Norway Is Emerging as Leadership

Japan’s breakout adds to an attractive global trendJapan’s base breakout, Europe’s rebound at the 200-day, and EM’s advance to all-time highs –...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe,...

Vermilion Research

Could Trump Add to Consolidation Pressure on Japan's Auto Industry

On the 4th of February the Nikkei reported that Toyota Motor Corp (7203 JP) and Suzuki Motor Corp (7269 JP) were in discussions regarding an...

Mio Kato

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn Round-Trip Trade Coming Up

There are 39 adds/34 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 6.7% and a round-trip trade of JPY 946bn (US$6.4bn)....

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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