Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Sumitomo Mitsui Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%. </li>
<li>Integrated Construction Co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a> - congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions - is buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17731:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP)</a> well below FAs' DCF range midpoints.</li>
<li>But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.</li>
</ul>


Noted activist Yoshiaki MURAKAMI and associates owned ~12.5% in March 2024, perhaps a tad more. Now they own ~29%. 
Integrated Construction Co INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) - congenitally allergic to paying full price for acquisitions - is buying Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP) well below FAs' DCF range midpoints.
But MURAKAMI-san has tossed his cards in, agreeing to tender. This looks like it gets done, but there are interesting angles.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Murakami-Led funds have quietly amassed a 26.97% stake in Sumi Mitsui Construction while also acquiring a 5.01% stake in its subsidiary, Sumiken.</li>
<li>With the Tokyo Stock Exchange clamping down on parent-child listings, Sumiken’s future as a public company looks increasingly uncertain, raising buyout speculation.</li>
<li>City Index’s small stake in Sumiken may serve as a defensive move to block rival bids, reinforcing its influence over SMC’s long-term strategy.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-Led funds have quietly amassed a 26.97% stake in Sumi Mitsui Construction while also acquiring a 5.01% stake in its subsidiary, Sumiken.
With the Tokyo Stock Exchange clamping down on parent-child listings, Sumiken’s future as a public company looks increasingly uncertain, raising buyout speculation.
City Index’s small stake in Sumiken may serve as a defensive move to block rival bids, reinforcing its influence over SMC’s long-term strategy.


Sumi Mitsui Construction (1821) | Playing Both Sides

David Blennerhassett

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Sep 2025, nine new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of only ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~56%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> has overshot the mark.</li>
<li>KKR's lock up in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.</li>
<li>Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a>. That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s IPO is, arguably, priced reasonably. Yet, no matter how you slice it, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) has overshot the mark.
KKR's lock up in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) expires in less than three weeks. It's not ideal stepping in front of fast-moving trains, so challenging to recommend a full-throated short.
Abu Dhabis' ADNOC walks away from Santos Ltd (STO AU). That was, realistically, the most likely outcome.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emeco-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8126:1" rel="noopener">Emeco Holdings (EHL AU)</a> appear to be in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soft99-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18486:1" rel="noopener">Soft99 (4464 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ci-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26170:1" rel="noopener">Ci Medical (3540 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week. Although ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) and Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) appear to be in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Soft99 (4464 JP), and Ci Medical (3540 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Construction Co., Ltd. is a general contractor nationwide and overseas.  The Company constructs infrastructure such as railways, roads and energy facilities.  Sumitomo Mitsui Construction also builds residential, commercial, and institutional buildings such as high-rise housings. Additionally, the Company operates real estate brokerage and leasing businesses.

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Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821 JP)

[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Infroneer does a deal to buy beleaguered Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, "saving" it from activist Murakami-san's 29% ownership. The deal comes light...

Travis Lundy

Sumi Mitsui Construction (1821) | Playing Both Sides

Murakami-led funds acquire significant stakes in Sumi Mitsui Construction and its subsidiary Sumiken, sparking buyout speculation.

Mark Chadwick

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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[Japan M&A/Activism] Infroneer To Buy Out Activist Target Sumi Mits Construction (1821) Cheapish

Infroneer does a deal to buy beleaguered Sumitomo Mitsui Construction, "saving" it from activist Murakami-san's 29% ownership. The deal comes light...

Travis Lundy

Sumi Mitsui Construction (1821) | Playing Both Sides

​Murakami-led funds acquire significant stakes in Sumi Mitsui Construction and its subsidiary Sumiken, sparking buyout speculation.

Mark Chadwick

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Sep 2025 Wrap: ReNew Energy Global, Digital Hold., Mandom, Paramount Bed, Spindex

For the month of Sept, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$2bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Zijin Mining/Gold, Kokusai Electric, Santos, Krungthai Card

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura, ANE, Emeco, SmartPay, Humm, Jinke Smart Service, Soft99, Ci Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Murakami-led funds acquire significant stakes in Sumi Mitsui Construction and its subsidiary Sumiken, sparking buyout speculation.