Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Integral Corporation (5842 JP) is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO.
Integral is a private equity management company advising funds that invest in both listed and unlisted companies in Japan, with a focus on mid-sized companies.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong Track Record

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades</li>
<li>The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains</li>
<li>Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?</li>
</ul>


Results show dramatically lower NIM, net interest income, but stock gains in spades
The only way to analyze 7182 is to have a view on its stock, bonds, investment gains
Unrealized gains more than doubled to JPY472bn: fire-power remains, but is it valuable?


Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index closed up last week and it has a good probability to rise further this week: the MRM tool has identified the current pattern as "bullish".</li>
<li>
<strong>Resistance targets</strong> are located <strong>past 33500</strong>, the index could reach that target this week.</li>
<li>If the index rises for 3 weeks or more, it could breakout from the previous resistance range around 33700, and reach targets past 34000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 index closed up last week and it has a good probability to rise further this week: the MRM tool has identified the current pattern as "bullish".

Resistance targets are located past 33500, the index could reach that target this week.
If the index rises for 3 weeks or more, it could breakout from the previous resistance range around 33700, and reach targets past 34000.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) / Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

<ul>
<li>SMFG achieved less of its FY24 profit forecast than peer megabanks; less upgrades</li>
<li>SMFG reported a far lower ROE than peer megabanks &amp; some worse financial metrics</li>
<li>SMFG's JPY bonds are only 0.88x of total equity; it is less leveraged than peer megabanks</li>
</ul>


SMFG achieved less of its FY24 profit forecast than peer megabanks; less upgrades
SMFG reported a far lower ROE than peer megabanks &amp; some worse financial metrics
SMFG's JPY bonds are only 0.88x of total equity; it is less leveraged than peer megabanks


SMFG - Least Achieved of FY24 Forecast, With Lowest ROE of Mega's & Less JPY Bond Leverage

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Integral Corporation Pre-IPO - The Positives - Strong Track Record

Integral Corporation, a private equity management company, is looking to raise around US$175m in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Post Bank - JPY234bn in Gains More than Offsets Cratering Net Interest Income

Japan Post Bank profit is entirely driven by gains on bonds, stocks, securities, and this can continue. It may though be considered low quality,...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) WEEKLY Resistance Targets

A tactical short-term WEEKLY analysis of the Nikkei 225 resistance levels: bullish pattern, the index can rise +1 week or more, but it will...

Nico Rosti

SMFG - Least Achieved of FY24 Forecast, With Lowest ROE of Mega's & Less JPY Bond Leverage

SMFG has achieved less of its FY24 forecast than peer mega banks, with a lower ROE, higher credit costs, higher operating costs, and less JPY bond...

Daniel Tabbush

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

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