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Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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<ul><li>FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.</li><li>While biopharma headlines were a roller coaster, investors appeared ready to grasp any positive news, despite more signs of FDA dysfunction.</li><li>In an E&amp;Y report reviewed by Reuters, 25% pharma tariffs would increase drug costs by $51 billion, leading to either 12.9% higher prices or reductions in R&amp;D efforts and workforce. </li></ul>

FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.While biopharma headlines were a roller coaster, investors appeared ready to grasp any positive news, despite more signs of FDA dysfunction.In an E&amp;Y report reviewed by Reuters, 25% pharma tariffs would increase drug costs by $51 billion, leading to either 12.9% higher prices or reductions in R&amp;D efforts and workforce. 

Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.</li>
<li>After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.</li>
<li>Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.
After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.
Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>Based on excellent data in HARMONi-2, Akeso’s investment certainty has significantly increased compared to a year ago. Accordingly, Summit plans to modify the clinical protocol to expand the ongoing HARMONi-3.</li>
<li>If the clinical trials go smoothly, Summit is able to sell AK112 (or the entire company) at a much higher price. Akeso would successfully become a Biopharma and achieve internationalization.</li>
<li>If AK112 is finally approved by the FDA based on HARMONi-2, Akeso’s market value would be higher than Innovent. If HARMONI-3 is successful, market value would be above RMB100 billion.</li>
</ul>


Based on excellent data in HARMONi-2, Akeso’s investment certainty has significantly increased compared to a year ago. Accordingly, Summit plans to modify the clinical protocol to expand the ongoing HARMONi-3.
If the clinical trials go smoothly, Summit is able to sell AK112 (or the entire company) at a much higher price. Akeso would successfully become a Biopharma and achieve internationalization.
If AK112 is finally approved by the FDA based on HARMONi-2, Akeso’s market value would be higher than Innovent. If HARMONI-3 is successful, market value would be above RMB100 billion.


2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

<ul><li>We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.</li><li>Last week started a busy season of medical and healthcare conferences, with obesity and cancer as major themes. SMMT led with Keytruda-beating (MRK) data in lung cancer, lifting TIL and BNTX with similar drugs.</li><li>NVO boosted amylin class of obesity drugs with positive early data, including ZLDPF, GPCR, and VKTX. </li></ul>

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&amp;A.Last week started a busy season of medical and healthcare conferences, with obesity and cancer as major themes. SMMT led with Keytruda-beating (MRK) data in lung cancer, lifting TIL and BNTX with similar drugs.NVO boosted amylin class of obesity drugs with positive early data, including ZLDPF, GPCR, and VKTX. 

Biopharma Week in Review - September 16, 2024

<ul>
<li>AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso </a>will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.</li>
<li>Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.</li>
</ul>


AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.

Akeso will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.
Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.


Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

United States

Summit Therapeutics Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing new mechanism antibiotics for the treatment of people with infectious diseases. Summit Therapeutics serves customers in the United States and the United Kingdom.

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Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US)

Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes

FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.

Water Tower Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biopharma Week in Review - September 16, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes

FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.

Water Tower Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

​Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Biopharma Week in Review - September 16, 2024

We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.

Water Tower Research

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

​AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...