Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-asset-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22650:1" rel="noopener">CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK)</a> has traded lower recently and shorts have exploded in the stock in the last few months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-asset-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22650:1" rel="noopener">CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK)</a> has underperformed its peers in the last 6 months and trades cheaper on forward PE and price to book.</li>
<li>There will be passive selling in the stock in just over two weeks. There will be positioning, but not enough to meet passive supply. Expect a further move lower.</li>
</ul>



CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK) has traded lower recently and shorts have exploded in the stock in the last few months.

CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK) has underperformed its peers in the last 6 months and trades cheaper on forward PE and price to book.
There will be passive selling in the stock in just over two weeks. There will be positioning, but not enough to meet passive supply. Expect a further move lower.


CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK): First Down, Then Up?

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics</a> are the largest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a> are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).

Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> after market close on 7 June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn (US$1.08bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the add and delete.</li>
<li>We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 index members looks to be a long and winding one.</li>
</ul>



BYD Electronics (285 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) after market close on 7 June while Country Garden Services (6098 HK) will be deleted.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn (US$1.08bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the add and delete.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 index members looks to be a long and winding one.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: BYD Electronics Added; Country Garden Services Deleted

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 3rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 3rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In its final results on 30 January, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.</li>
<li>The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties is a leading diversified real estate developer in Hong Kong, specializing in the development of residential, office, and retail properties for sale and investment. The company also operates in property management, hotels, telecommunications, transport, and infrastructure. Headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong, the group was founded in 1963.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)

CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK): First Down, Then Up?

CK Asset has traded lower and underperformed peers, short have spiked, and excess volume has increased. There will be passive selling in a couple...

Brian Freitas

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: BYD Electronics Added; Country Garden Services Deleted

BYD Electronics is an add and CG Services is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover is 1.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$8.46bn...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Tencent, Petrochina, BOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 3rd and highlight short interest changes in Li Auto, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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