Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Hung Kai Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After announcing full year results, one investment bank revised down share price target excessively (we will look at reasons).  On Monday, HSBC also announced adjustment of mortgage rate cap</li>
<li>These 2 events caused a sell-off in the property sector, SHKP, in particular, was down 10% and trading at HKD80 per share. We think it is overdone</li>
<li>At this valuation, market is pricing in super bearish scenario.  At 0.38x P/B, I think it is a bargain to buy now.  It is a value trade.</li>
</ul>


After announcing full year results, one investment bank revised down share price target excessively (we will look at reasons).  On Monday, HSBC also announced adjustment of mortgage rate cap
These 2 events caused a sell-off in the property sector, SHKP, in particular, was down 10% and trading at HKD80 per share. We think it is overdone
At this valuation, market is pricing in super bearish scenario.  At 0.38x P/B, I think it is a bargain to buy now.  It is a value trade.


Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK): After Excessive Price Correction, Why I Think It Is a Bargain! BUY

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we conducted fundamental analysis for SHKP, which is a proxy for Hong Kong given 70% of its GAV comes from Hong Kong</li>
<li>SHKP has well diversified businesses in residential, retail and office in Hong Kong and China, and there are a lot of share price drivers</li>
<li>We would recommend a BUY as long as the stock trades below HKD100, as the stock has a trading range of HKD100 to HKD 130</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we conducted fundamental analysis for SHKP, which is a proxy for Hong Kong given 70% of its GAV comes from Hong Kong
SHKP has well diversified businesses in residential, retail and office in Hong Kong and China, and there are a lot of share price drivers
We would recommend a BUY as long as the stock trades below HKD100, as the stock has a trading range of HKD100 to HKD 130


Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK): A Proxy for Hong Kong and Diversified Play – a Value Trade

<ul>
<li>On July 7, HKMA announced measures to ease property based lending. The major changes involve relaxation of LTVs, according to property values</li>
<li>We see these policies target the up-graders and will support the residential market. Housing price has been on a decline trend since early 2022</li>
<li>Residential developers are trading at attractive valuation.  In particular, we see a lot of upside for 17 HK NWD and 101 HK HLP</li>
</ul>


On July 7, HKMA announced measures to ease property based lending. The major changes involve relaxation of LTVs, according to property values
We see these policies target the up-graders and will support the residential market. Housing price has been on a decline trend since early 2022
Residential developers are trading at attractive valuation.  In particular, we see a lot of upside for 17 HK NWD and 101 HK HLP


Short Note: HK RE – Supportive Mortgage Policy, Resi Developers Are Trading at Trough Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> Rights start trading today. Last day is next Monday. There is a general pattern to the flows and it behooves investors to be aware.</li>
<li>There is a pattern to these trades which is worth understanding.</li>
<li>In this case, I expect it is worth going long Yuexiu Rights vs Short peer basket equity earlier in the cycle.</li>
</ul>


The Yuexiu Property (123 HK) Rights start trading today. Last day is next Monday. There is a general pattern to the flows and it behooves investors to be aware.
There is a pattern to these trades which is worth understanding.
In this case, I expect it is worth going long Yuexiu Rights vs Short peer basket equity earlier in the cycle.


<ul>
<li>In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK <a href="https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202211/18/P2022111800254.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gazetted</a> a bill.</li>
<li>HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they'd apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.</li>
<li>All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In March, the HK Secretary for Financial Services announced a waiver of stamp duty on dual counter trading market making. In November, the Govt of HK gazetted a bill.
HKEX launched plans in December. 9 large HK names announced in March they'd apply (Tencent, Kuaishou, Geely, BOC, Anta, AIA, China Resources Beer, Bidu, HKEX). Six more in April.
All the announcements are similar. But one on 21 April caught my eye because it is a big H/A with strong southbound support. That's China Mobile (941 HK). 


Another Reason To Like China Mobile (941 HK)

Hong Kong

Sun Hung Kai Properties is a leading diversified real estate developer in Hong Kong, specializing in the development of residential, office, and retail properties for sale and investment. The company also operates in property management, hotels, telecommunications, transport, and infrastructure. Headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong, the group was founded in 1963.

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Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)