Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sunac China</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Mr Trump called for “pre-emptive cuts” in interest rates, stating that “there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates now”.</li>
<li>The latest salvo came after White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that the Trump administration was studying whether it could fire Mr Powell. Mr Trump also told reporters on Friday that Mr Powell would resign if the President asked him to.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sunac China
US President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. In a Truth Social post yesterday, Mr Trump called for “pre-emptive cuts” in interest rates, stating that “there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a slowing of the economy unless Mr Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates now”.
The latest salvo came after White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Friday that the Trump administration was studying whether it could fire Mr Powell. Mr Trump also told reporters on Friday that Mr Powell would resign if the President asked him to.


Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.</li><li>Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.</li><li>UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.</li></ul>

Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao</li>
<li>In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.</li>
<li>Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun International, China Hongqiao
In the US, the ISM services index expanded to 54.1 (53.5 e / 52.1 p). This was driven by an increase in the prices paid and new orders components, while the employment component was stable.
Separately, the November JOLTS job openings rose to 8.10 mn (7.74 mn e / 7.84 mn p). The November trade deficit expanded to USD 78.2 bn (USD 78.3 bn e / USD 73.6 bn revised p).


<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sunac China US President Donald Trump has...

Lucror Analytics

Asia Real Estate Tracker (12-Jan-2025): Sunac unable to repay debt on time due to new petition.

China's Sunac faces financial struggles, while Country Garden and UOL make strategic moves in the real estate market to navigate economic challenges.

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunac China, Fosun...

Lucror Analytics

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)