Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-in-hindsight-on-2024-and-draw-the-line-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line' survey</a>, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025</li>
<li>Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024</li>
<li>Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025
Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)


China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

<ul>
<li>We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-the-red-hot-whitelists" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projects on the 'whitelist'</a> for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem</li>
<li>New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024</li>
<li>There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024</li>
</ul>


We've been tracking the data on approved financing for the projects on the 'whitelist' for over a year now, considering it a major factor in addressing the 'sold-not-completed' problem
New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024
There was a big acceleration in approvals in Q4 2024


China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

<ul>
<li>We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'draw the line'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2024 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in 2023, but 2024 was another unexpected negative, though not as bad as the surprise of 2022.
You can now join this year's 'draw the line' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 13th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role</li>
<li>But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary</li>
<li>Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications</li>
</ul>


Historically, the "housing market" in China largely meant the market for the development of new homes, with the secondary market playing a much smaller role
But this has changed in the past 2 years, with a greater shift of demand to secondary, given the risks of developers not delivering, and the lower prices in secondary
Based on the data for both segments, for 10 major cities, we illuminate in this note the 'primary vs secondary' dynamics and its implications


China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

China

Sunac China Holdings Ltd. is a major property developer specializing in large-scale, medium to high-end residential and commercial properties. The company also diversifies into cultural tourism, property management, hotels, and ice and snow operations. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

Price Gauge
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Sunac China (1918 HK)

China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Progress On The "Whitelist" Project Financing Approvals

China Housing: New data released in January shows the approved loans for the 'whitelist' projects exceeded the target in 2024.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: In Hindsight On 2024 And "Draw The Line" 2025

We review the 2024 'Draw The Line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened and put it in the context of the past forecasts....

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Primary Vs Secondary Markets (2019-2024) - An Increasingly Important Distinction

China Property: We point out an important distinction between the Primary and Secondary Housing Markets and the implications; based on the data for...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 17-23, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 17-23, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)