Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024</li>
<li>The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property</li>
<li>This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction</li>
</ul>


On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024
The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property
This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction


China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

<ul>
<li>Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected</li>
<li>In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline</li>
<li>The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS</li>
</ul>


Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS


China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>Today news reported that China has announced policy where mortgage holders can negotiate with banks on their rates.  We think this is a strong boost to the sentiment</li>
<li>Despite today sector is up 3-11%, valuation is at all time low and we think the risk reward profile is attractive, especially macro environment is turning more favorable</li>
<li>We think there can be potential upside of 40-200% depending on stock selection.  We also identify 5 factor that can drive a sector rerating</li>
</ul>


Today news reported that China has announced policy where mortgage holders can negotiate with banks on their rates.  We think this is a strong boost to the sentiment
Despite today sector is up 3-11%, valuation is at all time low and we think the risk reward profile is attractive, especially macro environment is turning more favorable
We think there can be potential upside of 40-200% depending on stock selection.  We also identify 5 factor that can drive a sector rerating


What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

China

Sunac China Holdings Ltd. is a major property developer specializing in large-scale, medium to high-end residential and commercial properties. The company also diversifies into cultural tourism, property management, hotels, and ice and snow operations. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

Price Gauge
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Sunac China (1918 HK)

China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

A new estimate for China's 'sold-not-yet-delivered' housing units in 2024 was shared by MoHURD and it looks much better than numbers derived from...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

What Is the Upside if Buy China RE Stocks? Valuation Is All-Time Low, 5 Factors to Drive Re-Rating

We think there can be 40-200% potential upside if we buy China RE stocks now. Valuation is at all time low, there is government policy support,...

Jacob Cheng

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)