Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 1-6 July 2023

<ul>
<li>The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent</li>
<li>The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May</li>
<li>May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data</li>
</ul>


The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent
The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May
May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data


China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand</li>
<li>The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data</li>
<li>The twist to this narrative is that in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures
</li>
</ul>


The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand
The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data
The twist to this narrative is that in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures



China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Railway / China’s railway investment falls for a third straight year</li><li>Covid-19 / China to end quarantine for travelers from Hong Kong to the mainland</li><li>Academic fraud / China punishes dozens for academic fraud at medical universities</li></ul>

Railway / China’s railway investment falls for a third straight yearCovid-19 / China to end quarantine for travelers from Hong Kong to the mainlandAcademic fraud / China punishes dozens for academic fraud at medical universities

CX Daily: China’s Railway Investment Falls for a Third Straight Year

<ul><li>Cover Story: China’s housing recovery will require rebooting the economy (Part 3)</li><li>Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin dies at 96</li><li>Guangzhou to conditionally allow home quarantine for Covid close contacts</li></ul>

Cover Story: China’s housing recovery will require rebooting the economy (Part 3)Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin dies at 96Guangzhou to conditionally allow home quarantine for Covid close contacts

CX Daily: China’s Housing Recovery Will Require Rebooting the Economy (Part 3)

China

Sunac China Holdings Ltd. is a major property developer specializing in large-scale, medium to high-end residential and commercial properties. The company also diversifies into cultural tourism, property management, hotels, and ice and snow operations. It was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Tianjin, China.

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Sunac China (1918 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 1-6 July 2023

A weekly curated selection of local Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress and new interesting...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

China released the official macro-property data today. We dissect the key metrics and read out the data, addressing the key data caveats.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

The common saying goes "China will get old before it gets rich", but for the market for new homes, there are some important twists to the...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: China’s Railway Investment Falls for a Third Straight Year

China’s railway investment falls for a third straight year. China to end quarantine for travelers from Hong Kong to the mainland

Caixin Global

CX Daily: China’s Housing Recovery Will Require Rebooting the Economy (Part 3)

Cover Story: China’s housing recovery will require rebooting the economy (Part 3). Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin dies at 96

Caixin Global

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