Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Sunny Optical has released its FY 2023 numbers, which were weak but in line with expectations. Revenue declined 4.6% y-o-y to CNY 31.7 bn, due to lower shipments of handset-related products. Gross profit tumbled c. 30% to CNY 4.6 bn, with the margin shrinking to 14.5%. OCF plunged 64% to CNY 2.7 bn, while capex decreased slightly. FCF was therefore positive, albeit significantly lower. That said, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position. We believe the industry operating environment will stabilise. The company marked seven consecutive months of double-digit shipment volume growth in February 2024, indicating that the recovery in the smartphone market is continuing. We expect shipments to stabilise at this level, which will represent a robust increase from the FY 2023 numbers. We project positive revenue and earnings growth in FY 2024.

  Sunny Optical has released its FY 2023 numbers, which were weak but in line with expectations. Revenue declined 4.6% y-o-y to CNY 31.7 bn, due to lower shipments of handset-related products. Gross profit tumbled c. 30% to CNY 4.6 bn, with the margin shrinking to 14.5%. OCF plunged 64% to CNY 2.7 bn, while capex decreased slightly. FCF was therefore positive, albeit significantly lower. That said, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position.   We believe the industry operating environment will stabilise. The company marked seven consecutive months of double-digit shipment volume growth in February 2024, indicating that the recovery in the smartphone market is continuing. We expect shipments to stabilise at this level, which will represent a robust increase from the FY 2023 numbers. We project positive revenue and earnings growth in FY 2024. 

Sunny Optical - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13363'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Sunny Optical Technology Group

Morning Views Asia: Sunny Optical Technology Group

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> dominate the compact lens module market, but analysis of data from technical publications suggests very different strategies.</li>
<li>After lagging Largan significantly till 2016, Sunny Optical now leads in number of innovations, though the impact and quality of the innovations still materially lags Largan</li>
<li>Besides overcapacity the primary risk for the industry is whether at some some stage the benefits of "next-gen" lens modules fall below the "Noticeable Difference" threshold.</li>
</ul>



Sunny Optical (2382 HK)  and Largan Precision (3008 TT) dominate the compact lens module market, but analysis of data from technical publications suggests very different strategies.
After lagging Largan significantly till 2016, Sunny Optical now leads in number of innovations, though the impact and quality of the innovations still materially lags Largan
Besides overcapacity the primary risk for the industry is whether at some some stage the benefits of "next-gen" lens modules fall below the "Noticeable Difference" threshold.


Sunny Optical & Largan - Innovation Quantity Versus Quality

Sunny Optical has released H1/23 numbers that were worse than expected in our view, with revenues and earnings below street estimates. Revenues declined 15.9% y-o-y to CNY 14.3 bn. Meanwhile, gross profit dropped 39.5% to CNY 2.1 bn, with a margin of 14.9%. Net profit plunged 68% to CNY 437 mn. A detailed cash-flow statement was not provided. Positively, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position. Gross Debt/EBITDA rose to 3.9x, which is too high for a Baa1 credit in our view. We note that this has crossed Moody’s 2.0x negative rating trigger, which should cause downgrade pressure to build up.

  Sunny Optical has released H1/23 numbers that were worse than expected in our view, with revenues and earnings below street estimates. Revenues declined 15.9% y-o-y to CNY 14.3 bn. Meanwhile, gross profit dropped 39.5% to CNY 2.1 bn, with a margin of 14.9%. Net profit plunged 68% to CNY 437 mn. A detailed cash-flow statement was not provided. Positively, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position. Gross Debt/EBITDA rose to 3.9x, which is too high for a Baa1 credit in our view. We note that this has crossed Moody’s 2.0x negative rating trigger, which should cause downgrade pressure to build up. 

Sunny Optical - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


China

Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Limited designs and manufactures optical and optical related products. The Company's products include glass/plastic lenses, prisms, mobile phone camera modules, microscopes, surveying instruments, and other analytical instruments.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)

Sunny Optical - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Sunny Optical has released its FY 2023 numbers, which were weak but in line with expectations. Revenue declined 4.6% y-o-y to CNY 31.7 bn, due to...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Sunny Optical Technology Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Sunny Optical & Largan - Innovation Quantity Versus Quality

Since 2016 Sunny Optical has ramped up innovations in compact lens modules at an exhilarating pace, but in terms of impact the innovations lag that...

Pyari Menon

Sunny Optical - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Sunny Optical has released H1/23 numbers that were worse than expected in our view, with revenues and earnings below street estimates. Revenues...

Lucror Analytics

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden