Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its AI server and data center infrastructure solutions.</li><li>The company's transition to direct liquid cooling (DLC) technology and AI-focused strategies have positioned it as a key player in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.</li><li>With a 143% year-over-year revenue growth to $5.31 billion, SMCI has demonstrated its capability to scale and meet the increasing demand for AI infrastructure.</li></ul>

Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its AI server and data center infrastructure solutions.The company's transition to direct liquid cooling (DLC) technology and AI-focused strategies have positioned it as a key player in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.With a 143% year-over-year revenue growth to $5.31 billion, SMCI has demonstrated its capability to scale and meet the increasing demand for AI infrastructure.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SMCI has surged 214% YTD and will form part of NASDAQ-100 from 22/Jul topping $50 billion in valuation. Strategic partnerships with Nvidia &amp; AMD boosted its AI server market presence. </li>
<li>Walgreens has declined 56% YTD with its market cap falling below $10 billion. Failing to maintain at least 0.1% of NASDAQ 100’s market value has led to its exclusion. </li>
<li>Historically, stocks added to indices outperformed briefly post-announcement. Although recent trend shows minimal outperformance, SMCI and WBA have shown strong trends due to idiosyncratic drivers.</li>
</ul>


SMCI has surged 214% YTD and will form part of NASDAQ-100 from 22/Jul topping $50 billion in valuation. Strategic partnerships with Nvidia &amp; AMD boosted its AI server market presence. 
Walgreens has declined 56% YTD with its market cap falling below $10 billion. Failing to maintain at least 0.1% of NASDAQ 100’s market value has led to its exclusion. 
Historically, stocks added to indices outperformed briefly post-announcement. Although recent trend shows minimal outperformance, SMCI and WBA have shown strong trends due to idiosyncratic drivers.


Super Micro Ascends, Walgreens Exits Nasdaq-100 on 22/Jul. How Will Index Rebalancing Pan Out?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 21 June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> while the estimated selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirius-xm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1374:1" rel="noopener">Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US)</a> is smaller.</li>
<li>There could be passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> ETF.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) will replace Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) in the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) after the close of trading on 21 June.
Passive trackers will need to buy just over US$500m of ARM Holdings (ARM US) while the estimated selling in Sirius Xm Holdings (SIRI US) is smaller.
There could be passive selling in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), but this will be a lot smaller than the expected buying from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) ETF.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Market Largely Influenced by Macro Trends and Nvidia Movements This Past Week</li>
<li>Key Events: Computex, Apple WDC, Key Taiwan May Revenue Releases</li>
<li>Apple (AAPL US) Is Overhauling Siri In Order to Create a Beautiful Voice-based AI Interface for the iPhone</li>
</ul>


Market Largely Influenced by Macro Trends and Nvidia Movements This Past Week
Key Events: Computex, Apple WDC, Key Taiwan May Revenue Releases
Apple (AAPL US) Is Overhauling Siri In Order to Create a Beautiful Voice-based AI Interface for the iPhone


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Computex & Apple WDC Imminent; Apple Releasing New AI Voice Interface for IPhone

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Latest 2024E Industry Guidance Provided at Symposium in Taiwan</li>
<li>More Potential Details on Nvidia &amp; Mediatek's AI PC Chip to Compete with Qualcomm &amp; Intel</li>
<li>Samsung's HBM DRAM Chips Face Challenges in Meeting Nvidia's AI Requirements</li>
</ul>


TSMC's Latest 2024E Industry Guidance Provided at Symposium in Taiwan
More Potential Details on Nvidia &amp; Mediatek's AI PC Chip to Compete with Qualcomm &amp; Intel
Samsung's HBM DRAM Chips Face Challenges in Meeting Nvidia's AI Requirements


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Latest Sub-Industry Guidance; PC Names Strong; Computex & Apple WDC Ahead

United States

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells server solutions based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture. The Company's products include servers, motherboards, chassis, and accessories.

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!

Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its...

Baptista Research

Super Micro Ascends, Walgreens Exits Nasdaq-100 on 22/Jul. How Will Index Rebalancing Pan Out?

NASDAQ index will rebalance admitting SMCI replacing WBA. SMCI has surged 214% YTD while WBA has crumbled 56% YTD. Index effect posits for SMCI to...

Mint Finance

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Computex & Apple WDC Imminent; Apple Releasing New AI Voice Interface for IPhone

Key events this week include Computex, Apple WDC, and Taiwan revenue releases. Apple is revamping Siri to create a voice-based AI interface for the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Latest Sub-Industry Guidance; PC Names Strong; Computex & Apple WDC Ahead

TSMC provides industry guidance for 2024E, more detail on Nvidia and Mediatek developing AI PC chip to rival Qualcomm and Intel, Samsung's HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!

Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its...

Baptista Research

Super Micro Ascends, Walgreens Exits Nasdaq-100 on 22/Jul. How Will Index Rebalancing Pan Out?

NASDAQ index will rebalance admitting SMCI replacing WBA. SMCI has surged 214% YTD while WBA has crumbled 56% YTD. Index effect posits for SMCI to...

Mint Finance

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Arm Holdings Replaces Sirius XM

Arm Holdings will replace Sirius XM in the Nasdaq100 at the close on 21 June. There is positioning in both stocks and some of that was likely...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Computex & Apple WDC Imminent; Apple Releasing New AI Voice Interface for IPhone

Key events this week include Computex, Apple WDC, and Taiwan revenue releases. Apple is revamping Siri to create a voice-based AI interface for the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Latest Sub-Industry Guidance; PC Names Strong; Computex & Apple WDC Ahead

​TSMC provides industry guidance for 2024E, more detail on Nvidia and Mediatek developing AI PC chip to rival Qualcomm and Intel, Samsung's HBM...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC provides industry guidance for 2024E, more detail on Nvidia and Mediatek developing AI PC chip to rival Qualcomm and Intel, Samsung's HBM...