Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.</li>
<li>
<p>TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.</p>
</li>
</ul>


TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on this print, and it’s justified. In almost every metric, TSMC came out ahead.

TSMC had a revenue, operating income, and gross margin beat and guided above the street.


Now let’s break out revenue by node and platform for a further look into the results of the world’s largest foundry.



TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline sequentially.</li><li>The quarter experienced a revenue shortfall primarily due to delays linked to customer site readiness and broader industry supply chain constraints, including shortages in CPUs, GPUs, memory, and SSDs. The company highlighted that several customer data center sites were not yet equipped with necessary power and networking infrastructure, causing deferred revenue expected to be recognized in upcoming quarters.</li><li>The backlog of orders remains at record highs, reflecting persistent demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with AI GPU-related platforms accounting for over 80% of revenue.</li></ul>

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline sequentially.The quarter experienced a revenue shortfall primarily due to delays linked to customer site readiness and broader industry supply chain constraints, including shortages in CPUs, GPUs, memory, and SSDs. The company highlighted that several customer data center sites were not yet equipped with necessary power and networking infrastructure, causing deferred revenue expected to be recognized in upcoming quarters.The backlog of orders remains at record highs, reflecting persistent demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with AI GPU-related platforms accounting for over 80% of revenue.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SMCI’s cash conversion cycle has blown out to roughly 149 days, trapping $12.9B across accounts receivable and inventory while forcing a heavy reliance on external debt.</li>
<li>Q4 guidance points to sequential recovery, but EPS signals severe margin compression. SMCI's cost structure is trapped beneath a 10% gross margin ceiling and a $64M quarterly interest burden.</li>
<li>The DOJ indictment involving $2.5B in alleged illegal AI server sales by SMCI-associated individuals introduces a critical overhang, with the company's SEC filings warning of potential impacts to prior-period results.</li>
</ul>


SMCI’s cash conversion cycle has blown out to roughly 149 days, trapping $12.9B across accounts receivable and inventory while forcing a heavy reliance on external debt.
Q4 guidance points to sequential recovery, but EPS signals severe margin compression. SMCI's cost structure is trapped beneath a 10% gross margin ceiling and a $64M quarterly interest burden.
The DOJ indictment involving $2.5B in alleged illegal AI server sales by SMCI-associated individuals introduces a critical overhang, with the company's SEC filings warning of potential impacts to prior-period results.


SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

<ul><li>Super Micro Computer has become one of the most closely watched names in AI infrastructure, but the latest debate around the stock is no longer just about revenue growth or demand for GPU servers.</li><li>The more important question is whether the market has started to assign the company a lasting trust discount.</li><li>That shift matters because Super Micro’s recent drawdown followed allegations tied to an alleged chip-smuggling case involving co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, who has pleaded not guilty, even as the company said it maintains a robust compliance program and remains committed to export-control compliance.</li></ul>

Super Micro Computer has become one of the most closely watched names in AI infrastructure, but the latest debate around the stock is no longer just about revenue growth or demand for GPU servers.The more important question is whether the market has started to assign the company a lasting trust discount.That shift matters because Super Micro’s recent drawdown followed allegations tied to an alleged chip-smuggling case involving co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, who has pleaded not guilty, even as the company said it maintains a robust compliance program and remains committed to export-control compliance.

Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) $50 Billion Puzzle: Is The Market Pricing A Trust Crisis?

United States

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells server solutions based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture. The Company's products include servers, motherboards, chassis, and accessories.

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)

TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Its the first week of earnings, and it's already a busy one. TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on...

Fabricated Knowledge

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline...

Baptista Research

SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.

Mint Finance

Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) $50 Billion Puzzle: Is The Market Pricing A Trust Crisis?

Super Micro Computer has become one of the most closely watched names in AI infrastructure, but the latest debate around the stock is no longer...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC, SMCI, Texas Instruments, AWE, ASML, and LRCX

Its the first week of earnings, and it's already a busy one. TSMC started this season’s earnings with a strong result. Shares rallied immensely on...

Fabricated Knowledge

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline...

Baptista Research

SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

​SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.

Mint Finance

Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) $50 Billion Puzzle: Is The Market Pricing A Trust Crisis?

Super Micro Computer has become one of the most closely watched names in AI infrastructure, but the latest debate around the stock is no longer...

Baptista Research

SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.