Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11405:1" rel="noopener">Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)</a> on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-joshinetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2081:1" rel="noopener">Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP)</a>. </p><p>This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. </p><p>To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. </p><p>SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. </p><p>That looks like a good premium.</p><p>Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter. </p>

Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP) on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP). This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. That looks like a good premium.Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter. 

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eps-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13246:1" rel="noopener">Eps Holdings (4282 JP)</a> was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. </p><p>A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. </p><p>It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a>. Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. </p><h2>The NEW News</h2><p>Earlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.</p><p>And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.</p><p>It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.</p>

Eps Holdings (4282 JP) was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP). Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. The NEW NewsEarlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/839/original/2019-12-17_10-16-56.png?1576545466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110839"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. </p>
</div><div><div><p>Following on from our previous Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-december-sector-peer-group-relative-price-scores-from-defensives-to-cylicals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35266" rel="noopener">December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals</a> which covered <strong>Sectors</strong> and <strong>Peer Groups</strong>, in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current <strong>Very Overbought</strong> (RPS&gt;5), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy</strong> (RPS &gt;4.5) and <strong>Oversold</strong> (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative <strong>3-month Changes</strong> in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.</p></div></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES •
Source: Japan Analytics
COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. 
Following on from our previous Insight December Sector &amp; Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals which covered Sectors and Peer Groups, in the DETAIL section below, we update our list of Overbought and Oversold large-cap companies (market capitalisation over ¥100b) with the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4.5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) companies, as well as the largest positive and negative 3-month Changes in RPS adding some stock-specific comments in each category.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •</strong></p><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS</strong> - The<strong> Relative Price Score (RPS)</strong> is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, <strong>'Overbought'</strong> and<strong> 'Oversold'</strong> outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities.</p><div>
<p>The data for all <strong>3,860</strong><strong>Companies</strong> is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our <strong>328</strong><strong>Peer Groups</strong> and <strong>30 Sectors</strong>. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of historical observations.</p>
<p>With a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in a matter of weeks or months. It often coincides with the peak of market interest in a theme or investment fashion.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/440/original/2019-12-15_05-25-54.png?1576355187" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110440"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION</strong> -  Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Overbought in the last three months include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/house-foods-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5964:1" rel="noopener">House Foods (2810 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1" rel="noopener">Bandai Namco (7832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-office-j-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7414:1" rel="noopener">Invesco Office JREIT (3298 JP)</a> - all five are domestically-orientated non-manufacturing companies.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/110/459/original/2019-12-15_05-51-43.png?1576356720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="110459"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Oversold in the last three months include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura (5803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishi-nippon-financial-holdi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26192:1" rel="noopener">Nishi-Nippon Financial (7189 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tv-asahi-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8830:1" rel="noopener">TV Asahi (9409 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uacj-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5330:1" rel="noopener">UACJ (5741 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP)</a> - one bank and three deep cyclical manufacturers. </p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. <span>A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.</span></p></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies are put on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can reveal attractive trading opportunities.
The data for all 3,860Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of historical observations.
With a few exceptions, mean reversion from these extreme outlying states occurs typically in a matter of weeks or months. It often coincides with the peak of market interest in a theme or investment fashion.
Source: Japan Analytics
OVERBOUGHT MEAN REVERSION -  Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Overbought in the last three months include House Foods (2810 JP), Oriental Land (4661 JP), Bandai Namco (7832 JP), Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP), and Invesco Office JREIT (3298 JP) - all five are domestically-orientated non-manufacturing companies.
Source: Japan Analytics
OVERSOLD MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of large-cap RPS mean reversion from being Oversold in the last three months include Fujikura (5803 JP), Nishi-Nippon Financial (7189 JP), TV Asahi (9409 JP), UACJ (5741 JP), AGC (5201 JP) - one bank and three deep cyclical manufacturers. 
In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector and Peer Group trends, over the last three months and adds some stock-specific comments. A separate Insight to follow in the next few days will cover the Relative Price Scores for individual companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Sector & Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> •</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/178/original/2019-09-06_09-42-35.png?1567730614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> has just joined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p></div><div></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/046/original/2019-09-05_12-46-46.png?1567655232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98046"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/055/original/2019-09-05_13-06-30.png?1567656423" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.</p><p><strong>RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken (9987 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomart-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1" rel="noopener">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichirei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7168:1" rel="noopener">Nichirei (2871 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/096/original/2019-09-05_16-25-39.png?1567668352" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98096"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/097/original/2019-09-05_16-27-09.png?1567668441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98097"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/098/original/2019-09-05_16-28-42.png?1567668548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/099/original/2019-09-05_16-30-29.png?1567668640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •</strong></p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/056/original/2019-09-05_13-12-52.png?1567656806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98056"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the<strong> REITs</strong> Sector and the continuing demise of <strong>Regional Banks</strong>.</p><p><strong>RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/100/original/2019-09-05_16-35-47.png?1567668972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/102/original/2019-09-05_16-36-50.png?1567669047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>As we noted in our June <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-scores-overbought-oversold-companies-june-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30393" rel="noopener">Insight: -</a></p><blockquote><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a></strong>- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and <strong>the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year,</strong> there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   </p></blockquote><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current<strong> Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5</strong>), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5)</strong> and <strong>Oversold (RPS &lt;-2)</strong> stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Lasertec (6920 JP) has just joined Goldwin (8111 JP) in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Suzuken (9987 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Nichirei (2871 JP), and Fancl (4921 JP). Source: Japan Analytics• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the REITs Sector and the continuing demise of Regional Banks.RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) and LINE (3938 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsAs we noted in our June Insight: -LINE (3938 JP)- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year, there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   In the DETAIL section below, we list the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

Japan

SUZUKEN CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Medca Japan, wholesales and manufactures pharmaceutical products mainly to hospitals and practitioners.  The Company also provides medical equipment such as electro-cardiogram and blood pressure measurement.  Suzuken provides construction and repair works to hospitals and maintains patients' clinical records through information systems services.

Price Gauge
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Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

Secom is finally taking out Secom Joshinetsu minorities. Because affiliates own more than 13%, this deal is done before it starts. You get cash, or...

Travis Lundy

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

EPS Holdings is being taken private by its founder in an MBO with help from existing directors and insiders, Suzuken, and MBK. Not unusually, it is...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Company Relative Price Scores - Opportunities in the Outliers

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - COMPANIES • COMPANY RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • December Sector & Peer Group Relative Price Scores - From Defensives to Cylicals

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

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