Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/phonepe-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34788:1" rel="noopener">Phonepe Pvt Ltd (1732974D IN)</a> 's new app, "Pincode", is based on the ONDC platform and offers hyperlocal e-commerce.</li>
<li>ONDC-Enabled Pincode could disrupt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> food delivery and grocery businesses.</li>
<li>Loyal restaurants may choose to offer discounts via ONDC, putting pressure on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a> to compete bringing back cash burn and discounting. </li>
</ul>



Phonepe Pvt Ltd (1732974D IN) 's new app, "Pincode", is based on the ONDC platform and offers hyperlocal e-commerce.
ONDC-Enabled Pincode could disrupt Zomato (ZOMATO IN) food delivery and grocery businesses.
Loyal restaurants may choose to offer discounts via ONDC, putting pressure on Zomato (ZOMATO IN)  and Swiggy (1255298D IN) to compete bringing back cash burn and discounting. 


Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | Houston, We Have A "Pincode" Problem

<ul>
<li>The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.</li>
<li>An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.</li>
<li>Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. </li>
</ul>


The near term impact of ONDC on OFD platforms like Zomato &amp; Swiggy is limited, longer term they will have to move from platform to a network centric model.
An external shock will be required to drive faster ONDC adaption as we have seen in the case of UPI.
Logistics companies especially the ones with express capabilities are likely beneficiaries in case ONDC scales up rapidly. 


India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Swiggy’s food delivery (FD) print was largely in line (MTUs at 15.1mn vs HSIE’s 15.2mn, gross revenue up 19.7% at INR18.67bn vs HSIE’s INR18.5bn, adj EBITDA at INR2.12bn vs HSIE’s INR2.14bn)</li><li>However, contextually, quick commerce (QC) performance outpaced expectations as despite higher-than-expected customer acquisition (MTU addition at 2.8mn vs HSIE’s 1.1mn), QC burn was largely in line at -INR 8.4bn (HSIE: -INR 8.6bn, Q3FY24 adj EBITDA was at -INR 5.8bn)</li><li>The sequential jump in QC burn was attributed to sustained high customer incentives, acquisition costs, aggressive dark store expansion (added 316 stores in Q4) and consequent under-utilized capacity</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Swiggy’s food delivery (FD) print was largely in line (MTUs at 15.1mn vs HSIE’s 15.2mn, gross revenue up 19.7% at INR18.67bn vs HSIE’s INR18.5bn, adj EBITDA at INR2.12bn vs HSIE’s INR2.14bn)However, contextually, quick commerce (QC) performance outpaced expectations as despite higher-than-expected customer acquisition (MTU addition at 2.8mn vs HSIE’s 1.1mn), QC burn was largely in line at -INR 8.4bn (HSIE: -INR 8.6bn, Q3FY24 adj EBITDA was at -INR 5.8bn)The sequential jump in QC burn was attributed to sustained high customer incentives, acquisition costs, aggressive dark store expansion (added 316 stores in Q4) and consequent under-utilized capacityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Swiggy is a business to commerce marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Swiggy IPO Lockup - US$7.9bn Lockup Release

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.</li>
</ul>


The anchor lock-up expired on 13 Feb 2025 and the pre-IPO shareholder lock-up expires on 13 May 2025. The free float is forecasted to increase from ~13% to ~40%.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global all-world at the June 2025 review following its IPO in November 2024 and the lock-up expiries.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) is expected to be added to global standard in May 2025 if top-down approach is used for free float. Otherwise, its addition will take place in August.


Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

India

Swiggy Limited operates an online easy-to-use food ordering application. The Company offers platform that allows users to browse, select, order, and pay for food, grocery, and household items delivered to their doorstep through on-demand delivery partner network. Swiggy serves customers in India.

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Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)

Zomato (ZOMATO IN) | Houston, We Have A "Pincode" Problem

Emergence of ONDC and PhonePe's Pincode app likely to disrupt food delivery and grocery businesses of Zomato and Swiggy, bringing back cash burn...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Food Delivery - Bracing for Disruption (ONDC)

ONDC is set to offer customers more options, alter business models for online food delivery players and provide a tailwind for express logistic...

Pranav Bhavsar

Swiggy: Value Emerging, Upgrade to BUY

Swiggy’s food delivery (FD) print was largely in line (MTUs at 15.1mn vs HSIE’s 15.2mn, gross revenue up 19.7% at INR18.67bn vs HSIE’s INR18.5bn,...

HDFC Securities

Swiggy IPO Lockup - US$7.9bn Lockup Release

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) raised around US$1.35bn in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): Post-IPO Global Index Inclusion & Final Lockup Expires In May 2025

Following research, due to the 6-month lock-up on the pre-offer share capital, the free float increase from 13% to 40% is expected to take place on...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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