Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.</li>
<li>Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) listed in November 2024 and around 85% of the shares outstanding (US$7.6bn) will unlock on 13 May.
Nearly 80% of the shares that unlock are held by pre-IPO PE/VC investors and they are 100% in the money in most cases. Expect the selldown to commence soon.

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) should be added to one global index in June, while inclusion in the other global index will require a small price increase or selling from PE/VC investors.


Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.</li><li>The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.</li><li>FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.</li><li>Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.</li><li>Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back</li><li>Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ respectively</li><li>In FD, MTU addition/GOV growth was largely in line with expectations (up 19% YoY), with stable take rates</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it backOverall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ respectivelyIn FD, MTU addition/GOV growth was largely in line with expectations (up 19% YoY), with stable take ratesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


India

Swiggy Limited operates an online easy-to-use food ordering application. The Company offers platform that allows users to browse, select, order, and pay for food, grocery, and household items delivered to their doorstep through on-demand delivery partner network. Swiggy serves customers in India.

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Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

There is a US$7.6bn lock-up expiry in Swiggy on 12 May - 80% of that is PE/VC, so expect selling. The stock could remain under pressure but PE/VC...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back. Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ...

HDFC Securities

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - India

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN): US$7.6bn Lock-Up Expiry & Index Inclusion

There is a US$7.6bn lock-up expiry in Swiggy on 12 May - 80% of that is PE/VC, so expect selling. The stock could remain under pressure but PE/VC...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey...

ICICI Securities Limited

Swiggy (3QFY25): Quick Commerce Burn Deepens. Maintain REDUCE

Swiggy’s food delivery trumped our margin expectations, alas widening Instamart losses pulled it back. Overall, B2C GoV grew ~38/7.6% YoY/QoQ...

HDFC Securities

Aequitas 2025 Asia IPO Pipeline - India

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2025, following up with a look at India after having looked at Hong Kong...

Sumeet Singh