Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 7.65bn (US$88m). With over US$40bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months, but there has been underperformance this calendar year.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.</li><li>The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.</li><li>FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy delivered a revenue of INR39.9b in 3QFY25 (up 11% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR38.9b.The food delivery (FD) business’s GOV grew 19.2% YoY, whereas the contribution margin was 7.4%, recording 80bp QoQ expansion.FD’s adjusted EBITDA as a % of GOV margin rose 90bp QoQ to 2.5%. Instamart’s GOV was INR39.0b (+88.1% YoY), which missed our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-housing-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43675:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiggy-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)</a> are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.</li>
<li>With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.

Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) and Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) are a hair's breadth apart on market cap and only one of them could be added to the index.
With quantitative criteria now being used to add stocks to the F&amp;O segment, it is possible there is no change to the index methodology to limit inclusion to F&amp;O members.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.</li><li>Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.</li><li>Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey findings.Adj. EBITDA margin in FD improved ~90bps QoQ despite marginal decline in take rate driven by cost optimisation.Pre-contribution expenses in FD were down 1.2% QoQ, which we believe implies 3-4% QoQ improvement in unit economics. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

India

Swiggy is an Indian online food ordering and delivery company. It also operates quick-commerce services under Instamart for grocery and household items, and offers restaurant reservation services through Dineout. The company is headquartered in Bengaluru, India, and was founded in 2013.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Swiggy (SWIGGY IN)

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTYJR in March. The forecast adds have underperformed since the start of the year as momentum has sold off....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% and one-way trade is INR 7.65bn. With over US$40bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Swiggy - Competition and Expansion Plans to Drag QC Profits

Overall, Swiggy reported a net loss of INR8b, marking a 39% YoY increase. For 4QFY25, we expect revenue/adj. EBITDA loss to increase 7.0%/14.5% QoQ.

Motilal Oswal

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Final List of Potential Changes in March

There could be 7 changes for the NIFTYJR in March. The forecast adds have underperformed since the start of the year as momentum has sold off....

Brian Freitas

Swiggy - Gains Share in Food Delivery; QC Losses Grow Higher than Expected

In FD, we estimate Swiggy to have gained market share of ~30bps on GOV basis and ~50bps on MTU basis. This is broadly in line with our survey...

ICICI Securities Limited