Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:<ul><li>Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10</li><li>Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13</li><li>Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17</li><li>Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20</li></ul>

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card Issuers, and Investment Banks/Brokers Groups. This is also confirmed by the XLF’s relative strength inflection higher. In this week’s report we narrow in on actionable ideas in the following Financial Groups:Mortgage Insurance (FN-20). MTG, RDN, ESNT, NMIH... pages 8-10Credit Card Issuers (FN-27). AXP, COF, SYF, DFS... pages 11-13Banks, Super-Regional (FN-15). BAC, WFC, USB, PNC, BBT, RF, FITB... pages 14-17Banks, Western, Large-Cap (FN-16). SIVB, ZION, WAL, UMPQ, CATY... pages 18-20

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Weakness in UK property, US consumer finance and historically low impairment costs, point to weaker earnings for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21976" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN)</a> when it announces this afternoon.  The UK’s real estate services company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21890" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21890:1">Countrywide PLC (CWD LN)</a> has shown a steady decline in profit, even when excluding exceptional items.  The main driver is weakness in property transactions, pure and simple. This will have an impact on HSBC which has considerable exposure to the UK market and including mortgage…

Weakness in UK property, US consumer finance and historically low impairment costs, point to weaker earnings for HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN) when it announces this afternoon.  The UK’s real estate services company, Countrywide PLC (CWD LN) has shown a steady decline in profit, even when excluding exceptional items.  The main driver is weakness in property transactions, pure and simple. This will have an impact on HSBC which has considerable exposure to the UK market and including mortgage…

Frailty in UK, US Consumer to Drag Down HSBC Profit

Discover Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

While many US banks have not reported rising NPLs or impairment costs, we are not convinced that the environment is particularly strong.  There are signs on fringes of distress, more so at the consumer level than with corporates. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11966" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11966:1">Discover Financial Services (DFS US)</a> is now recording 55% higher impairment costs in 2Q17 YoY which continues a worsening trend for the past three quarters. Maybe the pause on rate rises in the US is wholly warranted?Discover Financial – Net charge offs/loans (%)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/030/551/original/image%201.png?1501143505" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="30551"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source…</div>

While many US banks have not reported rising NPLs or impairment costs, we are not convinced that the environment is particularly strong.  There are signs on fringes of distress, more so at the consumer level than with corporates. Discover Financial Services (DFS US) is now recording 55% higher impairment costs in 2Q17 YoY which continues a worsening trend for the past three quarters. Maybe the pause on rate rises in the US is wholly warranted?Discover Financial – Net charge offs/loans (%)Source…

US Credit Card Lender Reveals Worsening Stress

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.</li>
<li>The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.</li>
<li>The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.</li>
<li>Overall, the US…</li>
</ul>


The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.
The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.
The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.
Overall, the US…


US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul>
<li>There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).</li>
<li>Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…


There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).
Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.
Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.
We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

United States

Synchrony Financial operates as a consumer financial services company. The Company provides  a range of credit products through programs we have established with a diverse group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers.

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Synchrony Financial (SYF US)

U. S. Equity Strategy Weekly

We are witnessing widespread bullish inflections throughout the U. S. Financial Sector, specifically within our Asset Manager, Bank, Credit Card...

Vermilion Research

Frailty in UK, US Consumer to Drag Down HSBC Profit

Weakness in UK property, US consumer finance and historically low impairment costs, point to weaker earnings for HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA LN) when...

Daniel Tabbush

US Credit Card Lender Reveals Worsening Stress

While many US banks have not reported rising NPLs or impairment costs, we are not convinced that the environment is particularly strong. There are...

Daniel Tabbush

US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on...

Sean Maher

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again). Global reflation trade over next few...

Johannes Salim, CFA

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