New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Synlait Milk’s (SML) 1H26 result was very challenged and after numerous adjustments, in-line with the trading update it provided in early February.</li><li>Net debt was NZ$472m, up from NZ$251m at FY25 and NZ$392m at 1H25.</li><li>SML has provided no explicit outlook commentary for the second half, nor has it provided clear strategic targets looking forward.</li></ul>

Synlait Milk’s (SML) 1H26 result was very challenged and after numerous adjustments, in-line with the trading update it provided in early February.Net debt was NZ$472m, up from NZ$251m at FY25 and NZ$392m at 1H25.SML has provided no explicit outlook commentary for the second half, nor has it provided clear strategic targets looking forward.

Synlait Milk (SML): 1H26 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Synlait Milk’s (SML) 1H26 trading update was well below our subdued expectations.</li><li>While SML has not been impacted by the recent ARA ingredient recall issues, there has clearly been wider disruption across the business over the past six months.</li><li>SML’s sale of its North Island assets for NZ$307m is due to settle on 1 April 2026.</li></ul>

Synlait Milk’s (SML) 1H26 trading update was well below our subdued expectations.While SML has not been impacted by the recent ARA ingredient recall issues, there has clearly been wider disruption across the business over the past six months.SML’s sale of its North Island assets for NZ$307m is due to settle on 1 April 2026.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.</li><li>We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.</li><li>If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.</li></ul>

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector.</li><li>We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP), dairy production, on-farm costs and farm prices with supplementary information on lending, confidence, emissions, the infant formula market and our global analysis of the dairy industry. </li><li>This edition highlights that times are tough for farmers with volatile prices, subdued Chinese demand, and elevated operating and interest costs are pressuring on-farm profitability.</li></ul>

The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector.We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk Price (FGMP), dairy production, on-farm costs and farm prices with supplementary information on lending, confidence, emissions, the infant formula market and our global analysis of the dairy industry. This edition highlights that times are tough for farmers with volatile prices, subdued Chinese demand, and elevated operating and interest costs are pressuring on-farm profitability.

Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest - Edition 2 Cashflow Constraints

New Zealand

Synlait Milk Ltd is a milk production company.  The Company produces, processes, markets and distributes milk, milk powder products and ingredients.

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Synlait Milk (SML NZ)

Synlait Milk (SML): 1H26 Result – Initial Impressions

Synlait Milk’s (SML) 1H26 result was very challenged and after numerous adjustments, in-line with the trading update it provided in early...

Forsyth Barr

Synlait Milk Curdled Milk ... Again

While SML has not been impacted by the recent ARA ingredient recall issues, there has clearly been wider disruption across the business over the...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event...

Forsyth Barr

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest - Edition 2 Cashflow Constraints

The Forsyth Barr Dairy Digest provides a snapshot of information relevant to New Zealand's dairy sector. We include forecasts on the Farmgate Milk...

Forsyth Barr

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