Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-d-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3431:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)</a>  <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247966/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.</li>
<li>The company also <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247966/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). </li>
<li>They <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247814/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247965/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new buyback</a> starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.


T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MSCI Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of trading for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.</li>
<li>The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _. </li>
<li>The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _. 
The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.


[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday - Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


<ul>
<li>Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be "low" - likely 4-6% of Sony's price.</li>
<li>Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider's set of large-midcap indices.</li>
<li>There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager "I don't want this" overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.</li>
</ul>


Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be "low" - likely 4-6% of Sony's price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider's set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager "I don't want this" overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.


[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff - What To Do?

Japan

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

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T&D Holdings (8795 JP)

T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

T&D announced a div hike and a buyback. The last 4 buybacks have been bigger, longer, lower ADV impact but the stock outperforms during, and...

Travis Lundy

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday - Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

SFGI shares trading up vs reference. I had expected it to price in the ¥150-210 range (that range in my first and second piece). I said I was...

Travis Lundy

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff - What To Do?

The Sony Financial Spinoff approaches. On 29 September, SONY will spin off 80+% of SFGI shares to its own shareholders. Index treatment is mostly...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

T&D announced a div hike and a buyback. The last 4 buybacks have been bigger, longer, lower ADV impact but the stock outperforms during, and...

Travis Lundy

MSCI Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed MSCI Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday - Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts

SFGI shares trading up vs reference. I had expected it to price in the ¥150-210 range (that range in my first and second piece). I said I was...

Travis Lundy

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff - What To Do?

The Sony Financial Spinoff approaches. On 29 September, SONY will spin off 80+% of SFGI shares to its own shareholders. Index treatment is mostly...

Travis Lundy

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market