Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-d-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3431:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)</a>  <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247966/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.</li>
<li>The company also <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247966/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). </li>
<li>They <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247814/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/TE8795/ir_material3/247965/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new buyback</a> starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, T&amp;D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.


T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation</li>
<li>This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD</li>
<li>The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates</li>
</ul>


New LDP leader and Japanese PM favours interest rate normalisation
This supports our outlook for a strengthening JPY against the USD
The Japanese central bank may now face pressure to raise rates


<ul>
<li>The horse trading continues with Israel bowing to the US and bilateral talks with Japan set to commence imminently.</li>
<li>US shippers outperformed given lower oil despite an outlook for lower global trade overall.</li>
<li>Samsung numbers beating this morning on strong demand for the Galaxy S25 smartphones and DRAM.</li>
</ul>


The horse trading continues with Israel bowing to the US and bilateral talks with Japan set to commence imminently.
US shippers outperformed given lower oil despite an outlook for lower global trade overall.
Samsung numbers beating this morning on strong demand for the Galaxy S25 smartphones and DRAM.


Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a> is not a knock-out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid</li>
<li>New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.</li>
</ul>


At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) is not a knock-out.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid
New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

Japan

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

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T&D Holdings (8795 JP)

T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

T&D announced a div hike and a buyback. The last 4 buybacks have been bigger, longer, lower ADV impact but the stock outperforms during, and...

Travis Lundy

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Banking on the BoJ

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher

Israel bows to US pressure, Japan to begin bilateral trade talks. US shippers despite global trade decline. Samsung numbers beat with Galaxy S25...

Andrew Jackson

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

T&D Holdings (8795) - A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

T&D announced a div hike and a buyback. The last 4 buybacks have been bigger, longer, lower ADV impact but the stock outperforms during, and...

Travis Lundy

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Banking on the BoJ

​New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market

Rikki Malik

Japan Morning Connection: US Relief Rally Sending JP Futures Sharply Higher

Israel bows to US pressure, Japan to begin bilateral trade talks. US shippers despite global trade decline. Samsung numbers beat with Galaxy S25...

Andrew Jackson

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

New Japanese PM's interest rate stance could lead to a stronger JPY against USD. Higher rates will help certain sectors in the market