IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>'s US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback.  </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-plantations-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11418:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Denso Corp (6902 JP)'s US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback.  
Event-Driven developments - CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) - Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Hollysys Automation Technologies / Event-Driven

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glosel-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18515:1" rel="noopener">Glosel (9995 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer; and the indicative Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>'s H-shares. </li>
<li>Key updates on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lansen-pharmaceutical-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10835:1" rel="noopener">Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)</a> </li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: Glosel (9995 JP)'s Tender Offer; and the indicative Offer for CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)'s H-shares. 
Key updates on: Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), and Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a> has satisfied the precondition of selling its Hangzhou Toka Ink stake to hold less than 30%. The offer is targeted for early January.</li>
<li>Due to Dalton's stake building, the shares have consistently traded above Bain’s pre-conditional JPY1,400 offer. Bain can either launch the tender with unchanged terms or bump the offer.</li>
<li>A bump is likely as, despite the irrevocables, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is challenging. The Board will struggle to recommend the offer if the shares remain above terms. </li>
</ul>



T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP) has satisfied the precondition of selling its Hangzhou Toka Ink stake to hold less than 30%. The offer is targeted for early January.
Due to Dalton's stake building, the shares have consistently traded above Bain’s pre-conditional JPY1,400 offer. Bain can either launch the tender with unchanged terms or bump the offer.
A bump is likely as, despite the irrevocables, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is challenging. The Board will struggle to recommend the offer if the shares remain above terms. 


T&K Toka (4636 JP): Bain Decision Time as Progress Made on a Pre-Condition

Japan

T&K TOKA CO., LTD. manufactures and sells specialized inks for printing applications.  The Company exports its products throughout Southeast Asia.

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T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Dec) - Denso, T&K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin, OreCorp, Hollysys, BPLANT

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (T K Toka, CIMC Vehicles, Origin Energy, OreCorp, Hollysys, Boustead Plantations, UMW) and...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Glosel, CIMC, Orecorp, Tietto Mineral, Lansen Pharmaceutical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

T&K Toka (4636 JP): Bain Decision Time as Progress Made on a Pre-Condition

A bump is likely as, despite the irrevocables, satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is challenging. The Board will struggle to recommend the...

Arun George

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