HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue to adopt this strategy, as the outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> is weaker than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a>, which generated 51pp in the last year. </li>
<li>For FY26-27, OOIL will face more bunker and capacity pressure. Its metrics are less attractive, for example, dividend yield of 1.2-2%, vs. SITC's 7.6-9.2%.</li>
<li>OOIL is more expensive at 25x FY26F PER, against 11.3x for SITC. While SITC's P/B is the highest among peers, it has an enviable average ROE of 42.8%.</li>
</ul>


We continue to adopt this strategy, as the outlook for Orient Overseas International (316 HK) is weaker than SITC International (1308 HK), which generated 51pp in the last year. 
For FY26-27, OOIL will face more bunker and capacity pressure. Its metrics are less attractive, for example, dividend yield of 1.2-2%, vs. SITC's 7.6-9.2%.
OOIL is more expensive at 25x FY26F PER, against 11.3x for SITC. While SITC's P/B is the highest among peers, it has an enviable average ROE of 42.8%.


China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM</li>
<li>The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too</li>
<li>Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative</li>
</ul>


Hapag-Lloyd last week announced an all cash US$4.2 bn bid for shares of Israel's ZIM
The deal will likely face regulators' scrutiny in Israel, Germany, maybe in EU, US too
Moreover, we believe long-term returns on the acquired assets will likely be negative


Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity</li>
<li>In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323</li>
<li>We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)</li>
</ul>


So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.</li>
<li>Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.</li>
<li>At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio's March performance was -11.25%, compared with -7.75% for the benchmark index.  The Hang Seng Index lost 6.92% for the month.
Performance was hurt by its exposure to the oil equipment and fertilizer sectors, which normally benefit from higher energy prices. China imposed price and export restrictions in the energy sector.
At the end of March, we positioned the portfolio to better cope with the difficulties in China's economy and in the global market due to persistently high energy prices.


Hong Kong

T.S. Lines is a container shipping company specializing in intra-Asian trade routes and niche services, offering mainline container services and specialized vessel chartering. The company provides comprehensive shipping solutions including cargo tracking, schedules, and handling of project cargo. T.S. Lines was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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T.S. Lines (2510 HK)

China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

The deal doesn't make financial sense unless EBITDA margins average 20% or better over the next 15 years, which is more than current margins and...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (March 2026)

Guoquan Food announced that management sold a 4.74% stake at a discounted price of $3.8 to boost the liquidity of the shares. We viewed the move...

David Mudd

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China Pair Trade Update: Long SITC Intl (1308 HK), Short OOIL (316 HK)

​OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hapag-Lloyd Announced US$4.2 Bn Bid for Israel's ZIM | Unfortunately, We Can't Get the Math to Math

The deal doesn't make financial sense unless EBITDA margins average 20% or better over the next 15 years, which is more than current margins and...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (March 2026)

Guoquan Food announced that management sold a 4.74% stake at a discounted price of $3.8 to boost the liquidity of the shares. We viewed the move...

David Mudd

OOIL faces a weaker outlook than SITC, with higher expenses and less attractive metrics. SITC offers a higher dividend yield and a lower...