Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.</li>
<li>Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.</li>
<li>Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).</li>
</ul>


Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.
Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.
Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).


Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ambiq Micro priced 4.0 million shares at $24.00.  The  share count was upsized 17.6% and the pricing was at the upper-half of the range. </li>
<li>The performance of Ambiq Micro is one that squarely places them among the best for the year in terms of opening performance. </li>
<li>A conservative valuation and a small deal size assisted in this IPO being wildly successful.</li>
</ul>


Ambiq Micro priced 4.0 million shares at $24.00.  The  share count was upsized 17.6% and the pricing was at the upper-half of the range. 
The performance of Ambiq Micro is one that squarely places them among the best for the year in terms of opening performance. 
A conservative valuation and a small deal size assisted in this IPO being wildly successful.


Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.</li>
<li>CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.</li>
<li>Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.</li>
</ul>


Engineering work continues on the 14A, but further capacity expansion is on hold until a major external customer commits.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan is prioritising balance sheet strength and shareholder returns after years of aggressive capex.
Intel would only expand PPE upon firm commitments, ensuring any new foundry capacity is tied to revenue certainty.


Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.</li>
<li>3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. </li>
</ul>


2Q25 was good QoQ: utilization up 7 pct-points, wafer shipments up 6%, US$ ASP up 8%, US$ revenue up 15% QoQ. But NT$ appreciated 13%, cancelling out the operating recovery.
3Q25 guidance: slow US$-revenue growth, NT$-revenue decline. FX leads to both 2Q and 3Q below Consensus by mid-teens%. Big miss despite improving operations: utilization higher, mix better, ASP higher.
The stock is cheap. Outlook is positive in terms of mix improvement, specialty process. But many unknowns (US tariffs, macro overall, NT$) will cloud the outlook for another 2-3 quarters. 


UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2</li>
<li>Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.</li>
<li>UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 Guidance: Wafer shipments growing by a low single-digit %; Revenue: Fully exposed to NT dollar exchange rate fluctuations; ASP (in USD): remain stable; Gross margin: Approximately flat to Q2
Focus on increasing loading, improving mix, new tech deployment, and controlling depreciation (&lt;10% YoY after 2025) to gradually return to mid-30s GM.
UMC leverages specialty content (now &gt;50% of revenue) to differentiate from peers.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...

IPO Boutique

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

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Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

​Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ): Semi-Conductor Surges, Upsized IPO Jumps 58% at Open

​Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...

IPO Boutique

Is 14A on the Chopping Block, or Is Intel Raising the Stakes for a Whale

​Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

Mint Finance

UMC 2Q25: The Recovery Is Cancelled Out by NT$ Appreciation

​2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

Nicolas Baratte

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q25 Outlook Improves Slightly over 2Q25, Based on Estimated FX Assumptions.

​UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...

Patrick Liao

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Ambiq Micro's successful IPO saw 4.0 million shares priced at $24.00, upsized by 17.6% and at the upper end of the range, leading to strong...

Intel is focusing on financial stability and shareholder returns, delaying capacity expansion until it secures commitments from major customers.

2Q25 showed strong performance but NT$ appreciation offset gains. 3Q25 guidance predicts slow US$-revenue growth, NT$ decline, despite operational...

UMC expects slight growth in wafer shipments, stable ASP, and flat gross margin in Q3. Focus on increasing loading and new tech deployment to...