Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Continue to View 24% or Higher as Level to Short From</li>
<li>UMC: +0.4% Premium; Results Coming... Wait for More Extreme Spread Levels</li>
<li>ASE: +0.4% Premium; Near Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22.1% Premium; Continue to View 24% or Higher as Level to Short From
UMC: +0.4% Premium; Results Coming... Wait for More Extreme Spread Levels
ASE: +0.4% Premium; Near Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

<ul><li>Federal Reserve expected to reduce interest rates amid labor market weakness and inflation concerns</li><li>Fed officials divided on future rate cuts, with market anticipating continued easing cycle and potential changes in personnel influencing decisions</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Federal Reserve expected to reduce interest rates amid labor market weakness and inflation concernsFed officials divided on future rate cuts, with market anticipating continued easing cycle and potential changes in personnel influencing decisionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. TSMC Dismissed Bubble Fears, Why a 2% Target?, Warehouse Market Turns, New CoStar Threat

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q3 2025 revenues of $33.1 billion, slightly exceeding the upper end of the guided range, up 10.1% QoQ and up 40.8% YoY.</li>
<li>On track for 35% YoY revenue growth in 2025, with revenue likely to exceed $120 billion</li>
<li>No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it's the latter..</li>
</ul>


Q3 2025 revenues of $33.1 billion, slightly exceeding the upper end of the guided range, up 10.1% QoQ and up 40.8% YoY.
On track for 35% YoY revenue growth in 2025, with revenue likely to exceed $120 billion
No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it's the latter..


<ul>
<li>TSMC 3Q25: Margins Surge as Pricing Power Strengthens Ahead of 2nm Ramp</li>
<li>AI Megatrend Continues to Reshape Demand - 40% CAGR Expected for AI Accelerators Through 2029</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long Rating -- TSMC Remains Inexpensive vs. Tech Companies Highly Dependent on It</li>
</ul>


TSMC 3Q25: Margins Surge as Pricing Power Strengthens Ahead of 2nm Ramp
AI Megatrend Continues to Reshape Demand - 40% CAGR Expected for AI Accelerators Through 2029
Maintain Structural Long Rating -- TSMC Remains Inexpensive vs. Tech Companies Highly Dependent on It


Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).</li>
<li>N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications</li>
<li>Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.</li>
</ul>


For 4Q25, revenue guidance is US$32.2–33.4 billion, equivalent to NT$985.3–1,022.0 billion (based on an assumed FX rate of 30.6).
N2 will begin mass production later this quarter with good yields, and volume will ramp in 2026 driven by both smartphone and HPC/AI applications
Smartphone inventory has returned to seasonally healthy levels, with no signs of early pull-ins.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Briefing. TSMC Dismissed Bubble Fears, Why a 2% Target?, Warehouse Market Turns, New CoStar Threat

Casey's research report on unique business model with fresh food offerings and pizza sales released, Federal Reserve likely to reduce interest...

The Synopsis

TSMC Q325. Today, The Numbers Are Insane

No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it's the latter..

William Keating

Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating

TSMC sees strong margins and pricing power ahead of 2nm ramp, benefiting from AI demand growth and remains a cost-effective option for tech...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Sinks Sharply; ASE Near Parity Again

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Briefing. TSMC Dismissed Bubble Fears, Why a 2% Target?, Warehouse Market Turns, New CoStar Threat

Casey's research report on unique business model with fresh food offerings and pizza sales released, Federal Reserve likely to reduce interest...

The Synopsis

TSMC Q325. Today, The Numbers Are Insane

No QoQ revenue growth this quarter suggests either AI demand growth has stalled or TMSC is maxed out at the leading edge. Methinks it's the latter..

William Keating

Why TSMC 3Q25 Indicates Strong AI Accelerator Demand Through 2029E; Maintain Structural Long Rating

​TSMC sees strong margins and pricing power ahead of 2nm ramp, benefiting from AI demand growth and remains a cost-effective option for tech...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q25 Outlook Slightly Softer; US Fab to Dilute GM; AI Remains Key Driver.

​Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.

Patrick Liao

TSMC sees strong margins and pricing power ahead of 2nm ramp, benefiting from AI demand growth and remains a cost-effective option for tech...

Revenue guidance for 4Q25 is US$32.2–33.4 billion, N2 mass production starting soon with strong yields, and smartphone inventory levels are healthy.