Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +26.8% Premium; Remains at Historical Extreme; Earnings Release Ahead</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +1.3% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread</li>
<li>CHT: -1.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +26.8% Premium; Remains at Historical Extreme; Earnings Release Ahead
ChipMOS: +1.3% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Shorting the Spread
CHT: -1.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High Ahead of 3Q Results; CHT Rare ADR Discount

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs</li>
<li>This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services</li>
<li>We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  </li>
</ul>


This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  


DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.</li>
<li>By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.
By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.
Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop</li>
<li>MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients</li>
<li>TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node </li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Samsung &amp; SK Hynix Lock In Memory Pact — Taiwan Next Stop
MediaTek’s Major ASIC Ambitions Face Delays from Some Key Clients
TSMC: New Signals Underscore N2’s Rise as a Blockbuster Node 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

<ul>
<li>USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.</li>
<li>The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.</li>
<li>TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.</li>
</ul>


USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.
The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.
TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.


USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High Ahead of 3Q Results; CHT Rare ADR Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High Ahead of 3Q Results; CHT Rare ADR Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

DeepSeek and Market Over-Reaction. Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, TSMC, SK Hynix

​Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

​US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: OpenAI to Consume Nearly Half of Global DRAM; Why TSMC 2nm Will Be A Blockbuster

OpenAI, Samsung, and SK Hynix are forming alliances in the memory industry, while MediaTek faces delays in its ASIC ambitions and TSMC's N2 node is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

USG 1:1 Rule on Semi Manufacturing: Not a Clear Positive to Intel but Clearly Positive to TSMC

​USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...

Nicolas Baratte

Article debunks alarmist claims about DeepSeek, especially GPU usage and cost. The AI revolution is just beginning, with physical models and...

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

USG 1:1 ratio not clear win for Intel, needs 14A node fast. Positive for TSMC, boost pricing power. TSMC may up US Capex, lower Taiwan Capex, make...