Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SK Reports Massive Margin Rebound; Nanya Tech's Financial Performance Appears Relatively Weak in Perspective</li>
<li>AI Applications Now Translating Into Rising Solid-State Memory (SSD) Demand</li>
<li>SK Povided Positive Color for Taiwan PC Names; New TSMC Collaboration Highlights TSMC Strength vs. Samsung</li>
</ul>


SK Reports Massive Margin Rebound; Nanya Tech's Financial Performance Appears Relatively Weak in Perspective
AI Applications Now Translating Into Rising Solid-State Memory (SSD) Demand
SK Povided Positive Color for Taiwan PC Names; New TSMC Collaboration Highlights TSMC Strength vs. Samsung


Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC's Strength Vs. Samsung

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.</li>
<li>Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.</li>
<li>Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rebounds Sharply Alongside Major Nvidia/U.S. Tech Rebound Last Week. Wave of Major Earnings Releases This Week -- See Our Key Events Section.
Apple's Latest Supplier List Released Last Week -- Nanya Tech, Lotes, and Novatek Dropped. New List Shows Apple Struggling to Diversify from China.
Apple iOS 18 Will Heavily Feature Edge AI Running Locally on the iPhone for User' Privacy and Security -- We Believe This Could Be a Major Driver of Phone Upgrades


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Premium Soars to +15.2%, Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: Spread Bounces from Lows to Relatively Extreme High of +1.9%; Good Level to Short</li>
<li>ASE: Spread Soars to Near All-Time High of +15.5%; Consider Shorting the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Premium Soars to +15.2%, Good Level to Consider Shorting the Spread
UMC: Spread Bounces from Lows to Relatively Extreme High of +1.9%; Good Level to Short
ASE: Spread Soars to Near All-Time High of +15.5%; Consider Shorting the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Spreads Surge to Extremes; CHT Shorts Massing Pre-Earnings

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.</li><li>TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.</li><li>First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.</li></ul>

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.TSM revenue is above guidance, gross margins are a bit ahead of the midpoint, and operating margins are at the high end of guidance.First, while this is a good result, semiconductors are due for a correction. I wrote about this in March, and SOXX has quietly crept downwards since then.

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Memory Monitor: What SK Hynix Sees For PC and Server Markets Ahead; TSMC's Strength Vs. Samsung

Major take-aways from SK Hynix's latest industry visibility. The memory industry is likely to achieve a new all-time revenue level in 2025E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Major Week of Earnings; Apple's Edge AI Could Make Your Current IPhone Obsolete

Taiwan rebounded strongly last week alongside Nvidia and U.S. tech. This week will be another major earnings week. Apple's edge AI for user privacy...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Spreads Surge to Extremes; CHT Shorts Massing Pre-Earnings

ADR spreads have surged to historically extreme levels for TSMC, ASE, and UMC. For CHT, we note a surge in short interest for its Taiwan shares...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, ASML, VAT Group, and Alphawave Earnings

It’s time for the main event: earnings are upon us. As is customary, let’s start with TSMC, move to ASML and Alphawave, and then discuss VAT Group.

Fabricated Knowledge

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

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