Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.</li>
<li>TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.</li>
<li>For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management's comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.


TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook</li>
<li>Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.</li>
<li>SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook
Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi &amp; foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD &amp; Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!


TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Shares Fell Sharply Along With Global Selling -- Semiconductor and AI Names Most Exposed</li>
<li>What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? </li>
<li>ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT) Wins iPhone 16 System-in-Package Order from Apple (AAPL US)</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Shares Fell Sharply Along With Global Selling -- Semiconductor and AI Names Most Exposed
What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? 
ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT) Wins iPhone 16 System-in-Package Order from Apple (AAPL US)


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semi/AI Darlings Slammed; TSMC Supply Chain Insights; ASE Wins Key IPhone Order

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +9.2% Premium, Major Breakdown From Previous Historically Extreme High</li>
<li>UMC: -1.9% Discount, Is Near Low End of Historical Range</li>
<li>ASE: +10.4%; ADR Short Interest Jumps to Very High Level vs. History</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +9.2% Premium, Major Breakdown From Previous Historically Extreme High
UMC: -1.9% Discount, Is Near Low End of Historical Range
ASE: +10.4%; ADR Short Interest Jumps to Very High Level vs. History


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Declaring a slower recovery for mature nodes was an outlier, indicating that Vanguard's recovery progress might be slower. </li>
<li>Apple's iPhone is expected to be the focus for N2 production in 4Q15F.  </li>
<li>TSMC's long-term gross margin is set at 53%, signifying a few key points. </li>
</ul>


Declaring a slower recovery for mature nodes was an outlier, indicating that Vanguard's recovery progress might be slower. 
Apple's iPhone is expected to be the focus for N2 production in 4Q15F.  
TSMC's long-term gross margin is set at 53%, signifying a few key points. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

TSMC beat & raised guidance, maintained FY outlook. Minor, unnecessary tinkering with semi and foundry forecasts plus confusion about the root...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semi/AI Darlings Slammed; TSMC Supply Chain Insights; ASE Wins Key IPhone Order

Taiwan tech shares drop sharply due to global selling, with semiconductor and AI companies most affected. TSMC sheds light on the semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

TSMC and ASE ADR premiums fall from extreme highs; ChipMOS and UMC ADR discounts are near the lower end of their historical trading ranges.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY

With Apple's iPhone driving N2 production for TSMC in 4Q15F, maintaining a long-term gross margin of 53%. TSMC's long-term gross margin is set at 53%

Patrick Liao

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TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

If you dig into the details, TSMC provided substantial insight into the company's internal estimates for long-term revenue. For ASML, we discuss...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

TSMC beat & raised guidance, maintained FY outlook. Minor, unnecessary tinkering with semi and foundry forecasts plus confusion about the root...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semi/AI Darlings Slammed; TSMC Supply Chain Insights; ASE Wins Key IPhone Order

​Taiwan tech shares drop sharply due to global selling, with semiconductor and AI companies most affected. TSMC sheds light on the semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

TSMC and ASE ADR premiums fall from extreme highs; ChipMOS and UMC ADR discounts are near the lower end of their historical trading ranges.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Sales in Line, 2024F Is Lowering the Growth Target Below 25% YoY

With Apple's iPhone driving N2 production for TSMC in 4Q15F, maintaining a long-term gross margin of 53%. TSMC's long-term gross margin is set at 53%

Patrick Liao

Taiwan tech shares drop sharply due to global selling, with semiconductor and AI companies most affected. TSMC sheds light on the semiconductor...