Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lam-research-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1116:1" rel="noopener">Lam Research</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$5.5bn. There are 3 stocks with over half a yard to trade.
The largest flows will be in NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Intel Corp, Texas Instruments and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +23% Premium; Has Broken Down from Historically High Level</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>CHT: -1.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +23% Premium; Has Broken Down from Historically High Level
ChipMOS: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
CHT: -1.1% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically High Premium Cracks; ChipMOS & CHT Opportunities

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.</li>
<li>Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.</li>
<li>Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.</li>
</ul>


Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.
Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.
Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.


Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

<ul>
<li>Himax (HIMX US): Silicon Photonics Becomes Strategic Imperative for Foundries, Reinforcing Long View </li>
<li>Silicon Motion (SIMO US): Multiple Growth Drivers Converging Into 2026E </li>
<li>Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC &amp; UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels </li>
</ul>


Himax (HIMX US): Silicon Photonics Becomes Strategic Imperative for Foundries, Reinforcing Long View 
Silicon Motion (SIMO US): Multiple Growth Drivers Converging Into 2026E 
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC &amp; UMC Spreads at Historically Rare Levels 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Industry Moves Show Silicon Photonics Becoming Must-Have for Next Gen Compute

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest industry developments show silicon photonics becoming a must-have capability for leading foundries as AI bandwidth needs push the limits of traditional chip interconnect technology.</li>
<li>Himax is well positioned as a key upstream supplier of CPO optical engines and nano-optics used in TSMC’s silicon-photonics packaging for next-generation NVIDIA platforms.</li>
<li>Himax’s validated CPO roadmap, proprietary WLO nano-optics platform, and a 2026E-2028E commercialization timeline position the company well. We reiterate our Structural Long rating for Himax into 2026E.</li>
</ul>


Latest industry developments show silicon photonics becoming a must-have capability for leading foundries as AI bandwidth needs push the limits of traditional chip interconnect technology.
Himax is well positioned as a key upstream supplier of CPO optical engines and nano-optics used in TSMC’s silicon-photonics packaging for next-generation NVIDIA platforms.
Himax’s validated CPO roadmap, proprietary WLO nano-optics platform, and a 2026E-2028E commercialization timeline position the company well. We reiterate our Structural Long rating for Himax into 2026E.


Himax (HIMX US): Silicon Photonics Becomes Strategic Imperative for Foundries, Reinforcing Long View

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in Dec but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically High Premium Cracks; ChipMOS & CHT Opportunities

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Don’t fight the Fed. Fed’s 25 bps rate cut was called a “hawkish cut” by some economists, but Chair Powell’s comment, highlighting the possibility...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Industry Moves Show Silicon Photonics Becoming Must-Have for Next Gen Compute

Silicon photonics and multiple growth drivers are shaping the strategic imperatives for firms like Himax and Silicon Motion in Taiwan. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Himax (HIMX US): Silicon Photonics Becomes Strategic Imperative for Foundries, Reinforcing Long View

Latest developments show silicon photonics becoming essential for leading foundries as AI demands strain chip interconnect tech. Himax well...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$5.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in Dec but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Historically High Premium Cracks; ChipMOS & CHT Opportunities

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Don’t fight the Fed. Fed’s 25 bps rate cut was called a “hawkish cut” by some economists, but Chair Powell’s comment, highlighting the possibility...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Industry Moves Show Silicon Photonics Becoming Must-Have for Next Gen Compute

​Silicon photonics and multiple growth drivers are shaping the strategic imperatives for firms like Himax and Silicon Motion in Taiwan. TSMC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Himax (HIMX US): Silicon Photonics Becomes Strategic Imperative for Foundries, Reinforcing Long View

​Latest developments show silicon photonics becoming essential for leading foundries as AI demands strain chip interconnect tech. Himax well...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Silicon photonics and multiple growth drivers are shaping the strategic imperatives for firms like Himax and Silicon Motion in Taiwan. TSMC and...

Latest developments show silicon photonics becoming essential for leading foundries as AI demands strain chip interconnect tech. Himax well...