Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.</li>
<li>The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?</li>
<li>For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.</li>
</ul>


IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag</li>
<li>Conclusion -- Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated</li>
<li>TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% -- US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC's Unique AI Exposure</li>
</ul>


TSMC Beats, Raises, and Confirms AI Ramp Is Real, Despite FX Drag
Conclusion -- Maintain Structural Long View, 2026 Growth Likely Underappreciated
TSMC ADR Premium Rebounds to 23.6% -- US Investor Positioning Skewed Toward TSMC's Unique AI Exposure


TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We take a detailed look at forward PE multiples, absolute and relative to Asia, of all Asia ex Japan markets.  North Asia is in line with average valuations, India expensive.</li>
<li>Juxtaposing valuations in comparison to history with the earnings environment of each market, we arrive at conclusions about which market should rerate and which should derate.</li>
<li>We posit continued rerating for Korea and Philippines. India should derate. HK, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore could rerate modestly. Malaysia and Thailand are cheap but seem destined to remain so.</li>
</ul>


We take a detailed look at forward PE multiples, absolute and relative to Asia, of all Asia ex Japan markets.  North Asia is in line with average valuations, India expensive.
Juxtaposing valuations in comparison to history with the earnings environment of each market, we arrive at conclusions about which market should rerate and which should derate.
We posit continued rerating for Korea and Philippines. India should derate. HK, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore could rerate modestly. Malaysia and Thailand are cheap but seem destined to remain so.


Asian Equities: Absolute and Relative Valuations – Spotting Mean Reversion Opportunities

<ul>
<li>We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC's Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below</li>
<li>Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment... also at 100% for SBU Segment</li>
<li>Takeaways -- Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions... Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC's Recent Activity Momentum</li>
</ul>


We Engaged with Kinik Recently to Get Insight on Activity Strength for TSMC's Expansion into Nodes 2nm and Below
Diamond Tooling: Quietly Powering Advanced Logic; Kinik Recently Running at Max Capacity for Key DBU Business Segment... also at 100% for SBU Segment
Takeaways -- Kinik as a Concentrated Play on Advanced Node Transitions... Also, We Believe Signs Remain Positive for TSMC's Recent Activity Momentum


TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst</li>
<li>UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short</li>
<li>ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +20.6% Premium; FY2Q25 Results This Week a Key Catalyst
UMC: 0.0% Premium (Parity); Wait for More Extreme Levels Before Going Long or Short
ASE: -0.8% Discount; Historically Rare Discount, Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: Absolute and Relative Valuations – Spotting Mean Reversion Opportunities

Korea's, Hong Kong's and Singapore's continued rerating is in line with our expectations, as is the derating of India - especially when it comes to...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Smartphone 2Q25: Boring Boring

​2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC 2Q25 Takeways: Undervalued Op Leverage and Capacity Strain Setting Up 2026 N2 Growth Suprise

​TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: Absolute and Relative Valuations – Spotting Mean Reversion Opportunities

Korea's, Hong Kong's and Singapore's continued rerating is in line with our expectations, as is the derating of India - especially when it comes to...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TechChain Insights: Kinik - The Hidden Enabler Behind TSMC’s Sub-2nm Push

​Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Results Ahead; ASE Historically Rare Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2Q25 smartphone estimates show slight YoY increase in units, but market is flat or declining. Semiconductor firms see ASP increases, while...

TSMC's strong performance and focus on AI growth is underappreciated, with US investors showing a skewed positioning towards the company's unique...

Insight from Kinik suggests positive momentum for TSMC's expansion into nodes 2nm and below, with Kinik running at max capacity for key business...